Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 100010
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
709 PM CDT SAT SEP 9 2006

ILC203-100019-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0301.000000T0000Z-060910T0030Z/
WOODFORD-
709 PM CDT SAT SEP 9 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WOODFORD COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

AT 704 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED...THUS
THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4080 8953 4074 8939 4092 8907 4091 8944

$$

SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
229 PM CDT SAT SEP 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND NOW LIES FROM NEAR GALESBURG TO SOUTH OF KANKAKEE.
EXPECT THIS SLOW MOTION TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
APPROACHING MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT WITH UPPER FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF
THE KANSAS SHORTWAVE...EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE IS PRETTY GOOD OVER MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY DECREASE AS IT EXTENDS INTO INITIALLY DRIER
AIR FURTHER EAST. SO WILL GO WITH HEALTHY CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTH...WITH MORE SCATTERED/ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. OVER
THE CENTRAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...HEATING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S
HAS ONCE AGAIN ALLOWED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LIKE THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY...THEN POSSIBLY
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE INCREASING SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA
AND INCREASING DYNAMICS FROM THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE IN IOWA AND
MISSOURI BY THE END OF THE DAY. STILL PREFER THE NAM WITH ITS MASS
FIELDS AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TOO MUCH LOW PRESSURE TOO FAR
NORTH. THE BEST BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LIFT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE WE WILL INSERT
SOME LIKELY POPS. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN...AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT
TIME. AGAIN...THE NAM LOOKS BETTER IN MOVING A WEAK SURFACE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS WELL AS THE
CANADIAN MODEL. THE GFS WITH ITS STRONG LOW OVER CHICAGO BY 00Z
TUESDAY HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LONGER TERM WILL SEE A WARMING TREND BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGHS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
LOWER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND EXPECT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
BE BEYOND THIS 7 DAY PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1116 AM CDT SAT SEP 9 2006

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-101100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-FULTON-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-
MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
1116 AM CDT SAT SEP 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BARNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
608 PM CDT SAT SEP 9 2006

ILZ031-037-038-043>046-055>057-100115-
WOODFORD-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-
DOUGLAS-COLES-EDGAR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...CHAMPAIGN...
URBANA...DANVILLE...CHARLESTON...MATTOON
608 PM CDT SAT SEP 9 2006

...FUNNEL CLOUDS SIGHTED OVER SOUTHEAST CHAMPAIGN COUNTY...

THE CHAMPAIGN COUNTY ESDA REPORTED SOME SIGHTINGS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
NEAR SIDNEY...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF CHAMPAIGN.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EXIST THIS EVENING ACROSS A PORTION OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAT FAVORS THE POSSIBLE
FORMATION OF WEAK CIRCULATIONS ON A PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARY. SOME OF
THESE CIRCULATIONS ARE OCCURRING UNDERNEATH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHERE A FUNNEL CLOUD MAY DEVELOP. ONCE THE RAIN
BEGINS...THE FUNNEL CLOUD DISSIPATES.

LOW HANGING CLOUDS CAN ALSO APPEAR TO DIP UP AND DOWN AT TIMES...BUT
THEY WILL NOT SHOW SIGNS OF ANY RAPID ROTATION. AN ACTUAL FUNNEL
CLOUD WILL EXHIBIT SPINNING IN A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE DIRECTION.

IN RARE INSTANCES THESE FUNNELS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCHDOWN. STAY ALERT
AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER IF A FUNNEL CLOUD APPROACHES
THE GROUND.

SMITH