Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 101524
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1024 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

ILC183-101600-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-060810T1600Z/
VERMILION-
1024 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN VERMILION COUNTY...

AT 1022 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HOOPESTON...OR ABOUT 21 MILES NORTH OF DANVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 45
MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  HENNING.
  POTOMAC.
  ALVIN.
  BISMARCK.
  COLLISON.
  DANVILLE.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTDOORS...MOVE TO A STRONG BUILDING AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER TREES OR PICNIC SHELTERS.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS COMMON IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4049 8753 4049 8794 4011 8792 4012 8753

$$

BARKER

000 
WWUS53 KILX 101535
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1035 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

ILC183-101545-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-060810T1600Z/
VERMILION-
1035 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN VERMILION COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 1033 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED...
THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM. REMAIN ALERT 
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 4049 8753 4049 8794 4011 8792 4012 8753

$$

BARKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
249 CDT THU AUG 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
00Z ANALYSIS HAS FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF CWA...ALONG THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY NEAR STL...STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL SD TO THE ERN SEABOARD.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OUT OVER THE EAST COAST...AND ALSO OVER HUDSON
BAY.  WEAK NWRLY FLOW AT 500MB...WITH EDGE OF H5 HEIGHT GRADIENT
JUST TO THE SW.  DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION FROM YESTERDAY
SURVIVING ENOUGH TO MAKE IT TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER ERN
NE...AND GETTING SOME ASSISTANCE FROM A LOW LEVEL JET...HAS TURNED
INTO QUITE THE COMPLEX THIS MORNING. SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT IN RAOB DATA OR ON PROFILERS...BETWEEN WEAK FLOW AND CURRENT
MCC.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM...COMPLETELY OUT OF
CONCERT...PARTICULARLY IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
NAM/WRF BEING THE LEAST OF THE EVILS...AND SLIGHTLY AT AN ADVANTAGE
IN THAT THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES OF THE PAST COUPLE
NIGHTS APPEAR TO BE LESSENING AS THE MODELS COME TO GRIPS WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND.  SIDING WITH THE NAM/WRF IN THE
SHORT TERM...AND GOING WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT AND MORE
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED.

SHORT-TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
PLENTY OF ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...BUT WITH MAIN SFC
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...PRECIP WILL BE MORE OR LESS A
FUNCTION OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH INCREASINGLY NWRLY FLOW
OVHD...AND ANY BOUNDARIES THAT MAKE IT THIS WAY.  CAPES IN EXCESS OF
5000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 86F IN THE
NORTH...AND A HIGHER 91F IN THE SW...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  WARM AIR AT H85 WILL ALSO BE ADVECTING INTO THE
FA TODAY...HELPING TO PUSH THAT BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY UP TO THE
NORTHEAST.  WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND VGP/S AT .6M/S2
ACCORDING TO THE NAM/WRF...ANY STORM MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY INTO
THE FA FROM THE SW HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...AND ISOLATED TORNADOS.  WILL BUMP TO LIKELY
POPS SW INTERSTATES 72 AND 74.

BECOMING MORE WELL DEFINED LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY IN THE
FORECAST.  MAJOR THICKNESS GRADIENT DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF
ILLINOIS...AND INVOF REMAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PUT LOW POPS
ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS...OR IS PUSHED OUT OF THE MIDWEST BY A BUILDING HIGH
DOWN FROM SERN CANADA.

LONG-TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE ENERGY PUSHES OUT TO THE EAST...THE FLOW STARTS TO TRANSITION
FROM NWRLY TO MORE WRLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A UPPER LEVEL
TROF IN THE DISTANT NORTH WILL HELP DRAG ANOTHER WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND BRING CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.  AFTER THAT...THE  FORECAST BECOMES AN INTERESTING
ISSUE OF TEMPS AS MODELS CONVERGE IN THE PATTERN...JUST NOT SO MUCH
IN HOW FAR NORTH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REACHES...AS A TROF MOVES OUT
OVER THE ERN COAST...RESULTING IN A BIT OF A HIGH HEIGHTS AND WARM
TEMPS FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

&&

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
735 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-111245-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-
MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-
COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-
CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
735 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS MORNING...AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE...AS THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER IS MONITORING A STORM COMPLEX IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED. THE STORMS MAY RE FIRE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES AFFECT
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHIMON