Severe Thunderstorm Warning 235, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
340 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE VARIOUS PERIODS OF STORMS OVER THE FIRST 3
DAYS. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS HAVE A GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS DUE TO THE
PATTERN BEING RATHER STAGNANT/BLOCKED. THE NAM AND CANADIAN GLOBAL
ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT... WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE. WILL LEAN TWRD NAM FOR DETAILS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE DEEP COLD POOL HAS PROVIDE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS SCATTERED OVER OUR CWA.
COLD AIR FUNNELS HIGHLIGHTED THE ONSET...BUT HAVE TAMED DOWN AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSED. NO TOUCHDOWNS WERE REPORTED. MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL REPORTS HAVE DIMINISHED AS WELL. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER VORTEX IS
VIRTUALLY DIRECTLY OVER OUR CWA...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY IS IN
OUR EASTERN CWA. STORMS ARE MOVING IN A SWIRL PATTERN AS A RESULT
OF THE VORTEX PLACEMENT. THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ANY THREAT FOR
INCREASING SEVERITY TO THE STORMS...SO NO WATCH IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE THE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. I LEFT
SOME ISOLATED WORDING IN FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING
ALOFT...BEFORE THEN NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL PUT THE TIMING FOR STORMS MAINLY
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT PARTICULAR LOBE OF
VORTICITY WILL BE IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH. IT APPEARS IT WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR CWA...AND BE A FOCUS
FOR SURFACE TROUGHS TO MOVE ALONG THE REST OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY...WITH THE COLD POOL SETTLING OVER
ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE EAST TO WEST SURFACE
FRONT THAT WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR CWA.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN APPEARS TO REMAIN BLOCKED UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST AND THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OVERALL FLOW ACROSS ILLINOIS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST. THIS BASICALLY MEANS THAT WE COULD SEE
CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS H5 SHORTWAVES MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE INTO ILLINOIS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH FROM DAY TO DAY...WITH SEASONAL NORMALS LIKELY
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHIMON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1156 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

ILZ038-043>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-271100-
MCLEAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-
DOUGLAS-COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-
CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1156 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE... A NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY... AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALL INTERACT TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

STORMS WILL TEND TO BE FOCUSED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY
ON... JUST WEST OF I-57... THEN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
PUSHES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
CURRENTLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY COULD BECOME SEVERE...ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 72.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ILZ027>031-036-037-040>042-047>051-271100-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-SCHUYLER-
MASON-LOGAN-CASS-MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-
1156 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL... BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
AT THIS TIME...NEITHER THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 72.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

HARDIMAN/AUTEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
506 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLOOD            2 S MOUNT PULASKI       39.98N 89.28W
06/26/2006                   LOGAN              IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WATER COVERING 300N ROAD BETWEEN 1600TH AND 1750TH AVE.

&&

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
525 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             DOWNS                   40.40N 88.87W
06/26/2006  E1.00 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            EXTENSIVE CROP DAMAGE ON COUNTY ROAD 36 BETWEEN DOWNS AND
            RANDOLPH. HAIL STILL UP TO DIME SIZE AN HOUR AFTER THE
            HAIL FELL. SWOP REPORT.

&&

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
532 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             5 S MOUNT PULASKI       39.94N 89.28W
06/26/2006  E2.00 INCH       LOGAN              IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0530 PM     FLOOD            5 S MOUNT PULASKI       39.94N 89.28W
06/26/2006                   LOGAN              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            1600TH AVE CLOSED AT LAKE FORK CROSSING.

&&

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
548 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             CALHOUN                 38.65N 88.04W
06/26/2006  E1.25 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            1-1.25 INCH HAIL OCCURRED FROM 215PM TO 220PM WITH CORN
            CROP DAMAGE FROM CALHOUN TO 1 MILE EAST OF TOWN. RECEIVED
            FROM THE CALHOUN VILLAGE HALL.

&&

GOETSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
611 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             3 SE PHILO              39.97N 88.12W
06/26/2006  E0.88 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            REPORT OF HAIL FROM OFFICE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OBSERVER.

&&

GOETSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
618 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     HAIL             1 NW RIVERTON           39.86N 89.55W
06/26/2006  E0.75 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            REPORT BETWEEN RIVERTON AND SHERMAN ON SHERMAN ROAD.

0618 PM     HAIL             3 E SHERMAN             39.89N 89.55W
06/26/2006  E0.88 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GOETSCH