Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 021053
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
453 AM CST MON JAN 2 2006

ILC169-021103-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-060102T1130Z/
SCHUYLER-
453 AM CST MON JAN 2 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SCHUYLER COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 448 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4014 9024 4007 9027 4007 9014 4041 8986
      4042 9019 4018 9021

$$

ILC057-125-021130-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-060102T1130Z/
MASON-FULTON-
453 AM CST MON JAN 2 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CST
FOR WESTERN MASON AND SOUTHERN FULTON COUNTIES...

AT 448 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BATH...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTH OF HAVANA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  BATH.
  HAVANA.
  LEWISTOWN.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...DUNCAN MILLS...CHATAUQUA PARK...
TOPEKA AND LIVERPOOL.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING...BUT STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4014 9024 4007 9027 4007 9014 4041 8986
      4042 9019 4018 9021

$$

AUTEN

000 
WWUS53 KILX 021121
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
521 AM CST MON JAN 2 2006

ILC057-125-021131-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-060102T1130Z/
MASON-FULTON-
521 AM CST MON JAN 2 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN MASON AND SOUTHERN
FULTON COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 515 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED...THUS
THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4014 9024 4007 9027 4007 9014 4041 8986
      4042 9019 4018 9021

$$

AUTEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE POPS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWS 993MB LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
MISSOURI...WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  ALOFT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO
MISSOURI...WITH IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT NOSING INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS.  FURTHER WEST...NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHORE.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS MISSOURI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH UPPER LOW AND 95KT 300MB JET STREAK.  STORMS WILL RAPIDLY
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY AROUND MIDDAY.  WILL GO
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BOARD THIS
MORNING...TAPERING TO LIKELY SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON.  SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE KILX CWA TODAY...REACHING WEST-CENTRAL
INDIANA BY 00Z TUE.  CAA ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATER TODAY...SO WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVED
EARLY...WITH SLOWLY FALLING READINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S THIS MORNING...AS WARM FRONT REMAINS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-74.  MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE A FEW DEGREES FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH READINGS HITTING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-72.  TEMPS LIKELY TO SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS ALL
BUT THE FAR E AND SE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CAA
HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK.

WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...AS SYSTEM
SLOWLY PULLS EASTWARD.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS...SO WILL MAINTAIN 30 POPS ACROSS THE EAST THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
PRECIP...SO HAVE PULLED ANY MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE FORECAST.

AFTER A QUIET DAY ON TUESDAY...NEXT WEATHER-MAKER APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.  MODELS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM
BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION AND THE UKMET BEING THE FURTHEST SOUTH.
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS REPRESENT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO.  PREFER
THE SOUTHERN UKMET SOLUTION...AS IT PANNED OUT QUITE WELL WITH THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM.  BOTTOM LINE WILL MEAN A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS.  BEST FOCUS FOR RAINS WILL BE A BIT FURTHER
NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...SO WILL HIT POPS HARDEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA.  STRONG CAA BEHIND DEPARTING LOW WILL RESULT IN ANY
RESIDUAL PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.  TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION NOTED BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

BARNES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1125 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2006

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-021200-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-
MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-
1125 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL
ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING...AND LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUMP UNSEASONABLY MILD AND
MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-72 TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY EAST
OF ILLINOIS MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ILZ052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-021200-
CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-
CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1125 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL
ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING...AND LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUMP UNSEASONABLY MILD AND
MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-72 TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY EAST
OF ILLINOIS MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AFTER 9 PM SOUTH OF I-72.

HUETTL/AUTEN