Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM ILLINOIS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF
STATES. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED AS THE WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS HAS
REACHED ITS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...BUT THERE ARE NO REAL
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS THE STORMS. NORMALLY...WOULD EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THE SUN GOES DOWN...HOWEVER
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWARD OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SO FAR...ITS NOT BREAKING ANY SPEED RECORDS ON
ITS WAY HERE...BUT THIS FEATURE MAY ADD TO THE LONGEVITY OF THE
STORMS A LITTLE LATER INTO THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
REPORT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS UPWARDS
OF 30 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. /IN FACT...WE JUST GOT A 55KT GUST
AT BLOOMINGTON AIRPORT JUST AFTER I TYPED THIS./ ALTHOUGH CAPES ARE
WEAKER TODAY OWING TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...SOME LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IF UPDRAFTS CAN MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. WILL ADD
SCATTERED/ISOLATED POPS MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT BASED ON RADAR DATA
JUST BEFORE FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE NUMEROUS ON TUESDAY WITH MORE
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMNANTS IN THE AREA. THE
BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE WEST NEARER THE PLAINS COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD BEGIN ITS SLOW TREK EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY. WILL
CARRY HIGH-END CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT AERIAL COVERAGE PRECLUDING LIKELY POPS.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THE
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD MIDWEEK...MOVING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE TIMEFRAME FOR THE HIGHEST
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. THE FRONTAL ZONE
SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE WE WILL LINGER SOME SMALL MORNING POPS DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE ECMWF AND OLD GFS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE TOPPING THE WESTERN
CONUS UPPER RIDGE ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THE GFS/DGEX ARE MUCH STRONGER
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...KNOCKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND PRESSING THE
WAVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN
FOR THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WAVE STRENGTHENS INTO
A CLOSED LOW NEAR MEMPHIS BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF RIDES A WEAKER SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKENS
IT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WINNING THE
CONTEST AND HOLDING STRONG. OUR FIRST INCLINATION WOULD FAVOR
SOMETHING LIKE THE ECMWF DUE TO THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE
MEAN FLOW PATTERN. ALSO...THE LATEST 12Z GFS RUN IS TRENDING TOWARD
THE ECMWF...SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1243 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-301100-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-
1243 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED
AND NATURE... AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER... THE
RESULTING LIGHTNING THREAT MAY BE A CONCERN WITH OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND COMBINE WITH
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH ILLINOIS...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ042>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-301100-
LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-
SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-
CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1243 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER... THE RESULTING LIGHTNING THREAT MAY BE A
CONCERN WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND COMBINE WITH
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH ILLINOIS...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

HARDIMAN/AUTEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
249 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     TSTM WND GST     BLOOMINGTON             40.48N 88.97W
05/29/2006  M63 MPH          MCLEAN             IL   AWOS

            KBMI AWOS PEAK GUST

&&