Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 112134
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
335 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ILC169-112200-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-060311T2200Z/
SCHUYLER-
335 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST
FOR SCHUYLER COUNTY...

AT 330 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF CAMDEN...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
RUSHVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  RUSHVILLE.
  BROOKLYN.
  LITTLETON.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3997 9113 3985 9091 4004 9048 4028 9045
      4028 9090

$$

SHIMON

&

000 
WWUS53 KILX 112145
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
344 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ILC169-112200-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-060311T2200Z/
SCHUYLER-
344 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST
FOR SCHUYLER COUNTY...

AT 341 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR CAMDEN...OR ABOUT 9 MILES WEST OF RUSHVILLE...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. ANOTHER STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZED 
HAIL WAS JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHWEST TIP OF SCHUYLER COUNTY AT 
345 PM CDT. IT IS ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  RUSHVILLE.
  LITTLETON.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4011 9090 4004 9074 4004 9048 4028 9045
      4028 9090

$$

SHIMON

&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
255 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SVR WX EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WL
BE TIMING OF THESE EVENTS AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ACRS OUR
SOUTHEAST. FURTHER ON DOWN THE ROAD...NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH ENSEMBLE SPREADS RATHER LARGE
FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.

SHORT TERM....TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...WL TEND TO SIDE MORE WITH THE NAM WITH
THE DVLPMT OF CONVECTION AND MOVMT OF THE FRONT ACRS OUR FCST AREA
INTO SUNDAY WITH A TURN MORE TWDS THE GFS WITH THE VIGOROUS SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES QUITE
LOW ACRS THE SOUTHEAST SO WITH THE ADDL CONVECTION DVLPG ALREADY TO
THEIR SOUTH THIS AFTN AND THE EXPECTED ROUND OF STRONG CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE AN FFA INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LATEST MSAS INDICATING BEST INSTABILITY FROM CNTRL MO NE TWDS WRN IL
WITH LI/S IN THE -6 TO -8 RANGE. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING AS
WELL WITH STORMS ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE ACRS SW MO AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE NE TWDS WRN IL OVER THE NEXT SVL HOURS. LOW LVL
WIND FLOW VEERING MORE TWDS A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NORTH ACRS THE FCST AREA. MAIN SVR WX THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO PSBL...ESPECIALLY
NEAR ANY OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION ACRS
EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIP SE ACRS THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A
LULL IN THE PRECIP WITH NEXT ROUND OF SVR STORMS FIRING UP TO OUR
WEST DURING THE AFTN. DYNAMICS EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR WDSPRD SVR
LATE SUNDAY AFTN AND NIGHT WITH CLASSIC LOW LVL TURNING DEPICTED ON
FCST HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SEVERE MCS OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT
TRANSLATING FROM TORNADOES TO STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION AS WELL AND THAT
WOULD TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE RAIN SOAKED SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP PULLS TO OUR EAST...AS
DEPICTED BY THE GFS. MUCH COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE STATE AS THE
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE ERN LAKES ON MONDAY BREAKING THE MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WE HAVE HAD FOR ABOUT A WEEK. FLOW BECOMES WEST TO
NORTHWEST AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER AND DRIER WX MOVING
IN...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. A FEW FLURRIES MAY WELCOME IN THE COLDER
AIR BUT THE DEEP MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WL BE SHUT OFF ON
MONDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ENSEMBLES SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD WITH
THE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THU...BUT BASED ON THE 12Z ECMWF IT
APPEARS A DISTURBANCE WL PUSH ACRS THE MIDWEST THU INTO THU NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE SHOWN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD TREND OVER THE PAST
SVL RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WL WAIT IT OUT FOR A FEW MORE RUNS
BEFORE MAKING ANY SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS. TEMPS RETURNING
TO MORE SEAONAL LEVELS STARTING ON MONDAY AND THAT SHOULD HOLD THRU
DAY 7.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH (FOR FLASH FLOODING) IN EFFECT FROM 600 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
SHELBYVILLE TO PARIS LINE.

&&

SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1146 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-121200-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-
MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-
COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-
CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1146 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WARM MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 300 PM...WHICH WILL EXTEND
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXTENDS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD TO SHELBYVILLE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND COMBINE WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST
AIR TO PRODUCE A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT TIME WILL BE FROM 300 PM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 1100 PM THIS EVENING.

SMITH