Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
915 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE UPDATING THE ZONES AND GRIDS SOON FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH THAT INCLUDES FOUR COUNTIES IN WCENT IL. A SURFACE LOW IN CENT
MO...WITH A WARM FRONT INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN IL WILL TRACK ESE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...BUT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL COULD EXTEND NORTH
OF THE LOW TRACK INTO WCENT IL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN
EXPECT PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME OF
THESE MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE...STORMS TONIGHT...THEN LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A DRIFTING CUT OFF LOW. IN THE SHORT TERM...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE EUROPEAN PAIR...CANADIAN GLOBAL
AND NOGAPS MATCH UP WELL WITH THE NAM AND GFS WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH GFS FOR DETAILS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ACROSS MISSOURI
THIS EVENING...AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. THE
AIRMASS OVER ILLINOIS REMAINS RATHER DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS
CENTRAL IL...PER THE 1730Z FLIGHT TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY DRY ABOVE
700 MB. A CAP IS PRESENT AT 850 MB AS WELL. SO STORMS WILL TAKE A
WHILE TO GET GOING TONIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT...A LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD BE ALREADY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS THE LOW PASSES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IL...AND THE INVERTED TROUGH ENTERS IL. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS OF 9000 FT AGL ARE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. SHEAR VALUES WILL
ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AS OUR
SURFACE WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW AND INVERTED
TROUGH. WE ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT...SEE
SPC/S SWODY1 FOR DETAILS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS THE
STORMS PROGRESS EAST TOWARD OUR EASTERN CWA. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS
FOR MID TO 6 AM...WHEN WE WILL SATURATE IN A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FOR
CONVECTION.

THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON WED MORNING...WITH STORMS LINGERING
ACROSS OUR E CWA...MAINLY WED MORNING. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE
TROUGH STALLING OUT JUST EAST OF ILLINOIS...AS THE BLOCKED UPPER
PATTERN KEEPS THE H5 LOW TO OUR NW. PRECIP MAY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS...THEN AGAIN
ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLIPS SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. WENT
WITH CHC POPS IN OUR SE CWA AS CANADIAN AND NOGAPS AGREE WITH GFS ON
A PRECIP SHIELD IN THAT AREA FOR THUR NIGHT/FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GENERAL COOLER TREND IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
EXTENDED...AS THE BLOCKED UPPER FLOW KEEPS COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WE WILL SEE A LONG WAVE
TROUGH COME INTO THE WEST COAST LATER THIS WEEK...AND POSSIBLY
BRING SOME STORMS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE ALREADY HAD 20
POPS FOR MONDAY...AND I LEFT THAT AS IS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

MILLER/SHIMON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1148 AM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

ILZ040-047>052-061-062-066>068-071>073-191100-
SCHUYLER-CASS-MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-SHELBY-
CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1148 AM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATER
TODAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI
AND IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TONIGHT. WHILE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF
ILLINOIS...SOME OF THE STORMS THAT TRACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT MAY
BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A
BEARDSTOWN...TO SHELBYVILLE...TO LAWRENCEVILLE LINE. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 9 PM
AND 4 AM.

ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-053>057-063-191100-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-MASON-
LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-
COLES-EDGAR-CLARK-
1148 AM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATER
TODAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI
AND IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TONIGHT. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1046 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 PM     HAIL             DIETERICH               39.06N 88.38W
04/18/2006  M1.00 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL JUST NORTH OF DIETERICH

1039 PM     HAIL             3 N WHEELER             39.09N 88.32W
04/18/2006  M1.00 INCH       JASPER             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

GEELHART

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1129 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 PM     HAIL             4 SE ROBINSON           38.97N 87.69W
04/18/2006  M1.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            RELAYED BY SWOP OBSERVER.

&&

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1135 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     TSTM WND GST     (IJX)JACKSONVILLE ARPT  39.78N 90.23W
04/18/2006  M59 MPH          MORGAN             IL   AWOS

&&

GEELHART