Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WGUS73 KILX 270134
FFSILX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
834 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006

ILC147-270315-
PIATT-
834 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR
PIATT COUNTY...

AT 831 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED
AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...WHITE HEATH...MANSFIELD AND DE
LAND

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT...WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3986 8875 3986 8847 4027 8849 4027 8858
      4007 8873

$$

AUTEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
355 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN WAS IF MCS WOULD DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL IL TONIGHT
AND HOW FAR DISTURBANCE OVER SE TX WILL BRING QPF INTO CENTRAL/SE IL
FRI. THEN LOOKING AT HOW HOT AND HUMID IT WILL GET AS ANOTHER HEAT
WAVE LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH WED AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE NATIONS HEARTLAND. 12Z/18Z GFS AND NAM/WRF ARE MORE SIMILAR
SHOWING MCS WITH HEAVY QPF TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL IL WHILE NGM AND
ESPECIALLY GEM ARE DRIER. LEANED TOWARD GFS/NAM/WRF FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL IL THOUGH NOT AS HEAVY WITH
QPF FIELDS WITH GFS HEAVIEST WITH LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
REMNANTS OF MCS HAS JUST SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
VERMILION COUNTY AND IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND MOVING EAST. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SW OF CHAMPAIGN WHILE FAIRLY CLOUDY FROM
CHAMPAIGN AND BLOOMINGTON NE. SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE
JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ACROSS
CENTRAL WI/IA TO 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MO. SOUTHERLY FLOW
BROUGHT IN A TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER IL TODAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
WITH DEWPOITNS 70 TO 76F. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 80S...BUT RANGE FROM
RAIN COOLED MID TO UPPER 70S FROM CHAMPAIGN AND BLOOMINGTON NE TO 88
TO 90F FROM SPRINGFIELD...EFFINGHAM AND LAWRENCEVILLE SW WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE TODAY. ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROF WAS OVER LAKE MI EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO NE IL/NW INDIANA WHILE 594 DM 500 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WAS OVER NORTH FL AND AZ/CA.

NAM/WRF AND GFS SHOW A 35 KNOT SW LOW LEVEL JET INTO EASTCENTRAL IL
AND CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TONIGHT. MID AFTERNOON WIND PROFILER
DATA ALREADY SHOWING 850 MB SW WINDS OF 25 KNOTS AT WINCHESTER AND
35 KNOTS NEAR LAFAYETTE AND THIS HAS HELPED KEEP SCATTERED
CONVECTION GOING THIS AFTERNOON OVER EAST CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA.
INCREASED POPS TO 50% OVER EAST CENTRAL IL WITH 40% ELSEHWERE
TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 9 PM. MAY EVEN BE LIKELY CHANCES OVER EAST
CENTRAL IL FROM CHAMPAIGN AND PARIS NE. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE ENERGY
STAYS NE OF CENTRAL IL WHERE HEAVIER QPF WILL LIKELY BE. SPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS FAR SE AS
LAWRENCEVILLE FOR MARGINAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AFTER
SUNSET.

CONTINUED CHANCE OF CONVECTION THU AND THU NIGHT...THOUGH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THU NIGHT. COULD BE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING THOUGH SPC DOES NOT HAVE A SLIGHT RISK YET. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPS NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS THU IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F WITH WARMEST READINGS WEST WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SE TEXAS PROGGED BY MODELS
TO MOVE NE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY FRI AND INCREASE CONVECTION
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SE IL WHERE LIKELY MAY BE
NEEDED AND MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER SE IL WILL KEEP THEM FROM GETTING AS HOT FRI.
HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F AGAIN...WARMEST NW AREAS.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION SAT AND OVER SE IL SAT NIGHT WITH
BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN IL AND AREAS SE. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100F

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED DURING EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. HIGHS 90 TO 95F WITH DEWPOINTS 70 TO 75F
TO GIVE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105F. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
SIMILAR HEAT WAVE THAT WE EXPERIENCED ABOUT A WEEK AGO. ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM PEORIA NORTH WED WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTHERN IL/WI. BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH TO NEAR I-70 WED NIGHT
AS GFSLR AND DGEX SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SE TOWARD IL. THIS FRONT
MAY END THE HEAT WAVE AFTER WED.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HUETTL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1206 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-271100-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-
MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-
COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-
CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1206 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

A LINGERING FRONT ACROSS THE I-72 CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
FOCUS FOR MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE... WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED AROUND THE I-72 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FRONT WILL LINGER AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. WEATHER
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIODIC RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CLIMB THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT DEPARTS. HEAT INDICES AROUND 100
DEGREES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HARDIMAN/BAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
709 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TORNADO          2 NE OREANA             39.96N 88.84W
07/26/2006                   MACON              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND BETWEEN OREANA AND ARGENTA.
            OBSERVED BY TRAINED SPOTTER...REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
            MANAGER.

&&

KELLY