Severe Thunderstorm Warning 290, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
238 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONIC OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WITH A LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW THERE ARE SEVERAL COLD FRONT/TROFS ROTATING THROUGH. ONE IS
LOCATED NEAR THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER WITH SECOND ONE FROM LAKE MI
TO NEAR ST LOUIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING COMPLEX CLOUD PATTERN
WITH BASICALLY THE SKIES CLOUDING UP. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN
INTERESTING FEATURE FROM NW OHIO INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE.

GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SWINGING UPPER TROF
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. CONCERNED ABOUT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFT/EVE AS ATMOSPHERE IS
BEGINNING TO BECOME UNSTABLE AND COLD POOL IS WORKING IN ALOFT.
THERE ALSO IS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE NEAR CHICAGO. THE COMBINATION OF
DE STABILIZATION, GOOD LIFT, AND WET BULB ZERO VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 6 TO 7 KFT WILL SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
LIKELY CREATE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE ROTATES DOWN INTO THE TROF. AFTER
THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL
BUILD IN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND
RELATIVELY CLEAR FORECAST.

MAV TEMPS LOOK REALLY GOOD.

TIPTON

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION.
THIS RIDGE SHUD KEEP MOST OF THE OHIO VALLEY DRY ON TUE WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE REGION. HAVE
SPREAD A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE REGION AND INCREASED THE POPS
TO 40 PERCENT ON WED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WX CONDITIONS.
THE 06Z GFS SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THRU THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS THE AREA
DRY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPING
THE AREA DRY NEXT SATURDAY AND GOING ABOVE MEX GUID WITH TEMPS.

TEMP WISE...GENERALLY PREFER TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEX
GUID CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
SFC LO LOCATED NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO WESTERN INDIANA. -SHRA WERE WDLY SCT ACRS FCST AREA ATTM.
FRNTL BNDRY WILL MOVE INTO REGION LATE THIS AFTN AS A MID LVL TROF
APPCHS FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AVAIL AND
STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD SEE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TO -SHRA WITH SCT TSTMS AS WELL. HAVE KEPT VCSH/VCTS FOR ALL TAF
SITES THRU THE EVNG WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR BEST TIMING TO PCPN FOR
TAF SITES. SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THRU AFTN HOURS. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER IN WEAK LO LVL CAA LATE TONIGHT AS MID LVL TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK SUN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS RESTRICTIONS
(ESPECIALLY AT KLUK/KILN). SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUN WITH SFC HI
PRES BUILDING INTO OH VLY. WITH RECENT RAINS AND SOME LO LVL
MOISTURE LINGERING...EXPECT THERE MAY BE SOME SCT CU DVLPMNT SUN
MRNG THRU END OF TAF FCST PERIOD.

RYAN

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
504 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2006

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-010915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-
DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
504 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING
HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
401 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             CELINA                  40.55N 84.57W
09/30/2006  E0.50 INCH       MERCER             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GREGT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
512 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             NEW BREMEN              40.44N 84.38W
09/30/2006  E0.75 INCH       AUGLAIZE           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GAT