Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
310 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA MOVING INTO MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY SO EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
INTENSIFICATION WITH THIS LINE. COLD FRONT STILL FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT BUT ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STILL
THOUGH...WITH BOUNDARY YET TO MOVE THROUGH...WILL HANG ON TO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT MODELS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
PUSHING FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE GO
WITH GENERALLY DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
INTO OUR AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SATURDAY BUT THEN FLOW
RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AND A FRONT APPROACHES. WILL SEE A QUICK RETURN TO VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DECIDED TO ADD LOW
CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FORCING DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30 POPS. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT WHATEVER PRECIPITATION MIGHT OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME MODERATION BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH MOST TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SKIRTING KCVG/KLUK TO THE N WITH ONLY SCT
SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER HERE. CIGS BRIEFLY DROP TO THE MVFR CATEGORY
AHEAD OF THESE STORMS BUT THEN MIX UP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THEM FOR
AN OBSERVATION OR TWO. LOWER CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT AS THE NRLY WINDS KICK IN AND USE ANY AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AT THE GROUND TO REDUCE VSBYS AND HOLD ON TO A STRATUS
DECK. THIS STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT WHEN WINDS SWITCH NE DURING THE
DAY FRI AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE EXITING CDFNT.

AM ONLY EXPECTING THUNDER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLD THUNDER POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING.
STABLE AIRMASS WILL WORK IN WITH THE CDFNT THOUGH TEMP DIFFERENCES
MAY HELP SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER...PARTICULARLY TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THAT MAY STILL HAVE A LITTLE LINGERING
INSTABILITY EARLY OVERNIGHT.

FRANKS
&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
512 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-040915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-
DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
512 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WITH HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RYAN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
409 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     TSTM WND GST     NEWARK                  40.07N  82.42W
08/03/2006  64 MPH           LICKING            OH   VTA ASOS

            VTA ASOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 N COLUMBUS            40.06N  82.99W
08/03/2006  70 MPH           FRANKLIN           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED BY SPOTTER NEAR FRANKLIN DELAWARE COUNTY LINE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     TSTM WND GST     COLUMBUS                39.99N 82.99W
08/03/2006  M48 MPH          FRANKLIN           OH   ASOS

            OSU ASOS

&&

JSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
447 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLOOMINGBURG            39.61N 83.40W
08/03/2006                   FAYETTE            OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN ACROSS NORTHEN PORTION OF
            COUNTY

&&

RLG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
504 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASHVILLE                39.72N 82.96W
08/03/2006                   PICKAWAY           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&