Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
607 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
UPDATED ZONES TO CLEAR PART OF WATCH AND TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HOT AND HUMID SURFACE AIRMASS AND COOLING AIR ALOFT HAVE COMBINED
TO PRODUCE STRONG INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT. AS A
RESULT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT...AND WARNINGS ARE
BEING ISSUED.

FOR THIS EVENING...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL NORTH AND
LIKELY SOUTH. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY LESSENS.

INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING A
STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ROLLING UP THE FRONT AFTER IT DROPS JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN THE EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PCPN MAINLY CONFINED TO SE
OHIO AND NE KY AT 12Z SATURDAY BEHIND A SFC LOW MOVING ALONG A
FRONTAL BNDRY. DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR WORKS IN WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED FOR
THE MOST PART.

IT APPEARS THAT THE BNDRY WILL STALL ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FCST.  SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE BNDRY...AND THE SE FCST AREA MAY BE BRUSHED AT TIMES BY
THESE IMPULSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...LOW CHANCE POPS
APPEAR ALL THAT IS WARRANTED.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS OBVIOUSLY GREAT UNCERTAINTY...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 156 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006/

AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
PRIMARY IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME LINE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS USING TEMPO GROUP AND WILL REFINE AS IT GETS CLOSER. ALSO
SEEING SOME STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE SO BROAD BRUSHED
VCTS AND CB DESIGNATORS. EXPECT TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
LATE IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP IN MIST. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS MORNING AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION SO HAVE BEEN FAIRLY GENERAL LATE IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
102 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>072-074-230945-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-HARDIN-
MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-
HOCKING-
102 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PROGRESS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

INZ075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ073-077>082-088-230945-
OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-
GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-ROSS-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
102 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...
SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THEY PROGRESS INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR HEAT
INDICES REACHING 100 TO 105 THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
611 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S LAUREL              39.46N  85.19W
06/22/2006                   FRANKLIN           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COUPLE TREES DOWN VICINITY US 52

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
621 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MIDDLETOWN              39.51N  84.37W
06/22/2006                   BUTLER             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A LOT OF TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
629 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST ALEXANDRIA         39.74N  84.53W
06/22/2006                   PREBLE             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FEW TREES DOWN VICINITY SR 503 AND US 35

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
634 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAYNESVILLE             39.53N  84.09W
06/22/2006                   WARREN             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN NORTHERN PORTION OF COUNTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCKFORD                40.69N  84.65W
06/22/2006                   MERCER             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 TO 4 MILE LONG PATH OF TREE AND ROOF DAMAGE FROM
            CHATTANOOGA TO ROCKFORD

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