Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
355 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

PREFER THE GFS FOR THIS RUN. THE NAM LOOKS TOO SLOW AND TOO FAR
NORTH WITH TODAYS SYSTEM. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FIRE
NORTH OF WRMFNT RUNNING ACROSS INDIANA. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK INTO THE FA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL TSRA ARE DEVELOPING OUT
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE NOSE OF 40 KT 850 JET. THESE
DYNAMICS WORK EASTWARD QUCIKLY AND ATMOSPHERE DETABILIZES. GFS
BRINGS IN AREA OF 3000 J/KG CAPES ACROSS THE NW BY 18Z. WIND
FIELDS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER ON THIS MODEL RUN...BUT WITH SUCH HIGH
INSTABILITY IT A GOOD BET FOR SOME SEVERE ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH. WILL ADD MENTION ON THE ZONES.

LOOKS LIKE THINGS TAPER OFF TONIGHT...WITH NO REAL KICKER. CDFNT
PUSHES THROUGH SRN GRAT LAKES ON THU AND WITH H5 S/W ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONEVTION IS EXPECTED THU. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THU
NGT INTO FRI.

MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE THRU THE PERIOD...SO DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR.

SITES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONT FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY EXTENDS
NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FRONT IS BEGINNING TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY 06Z
THURSDAY WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA AND NEXT
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OHIO FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS DEPICTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM KENTUCKY NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
INDIANA, ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN.

THE COMBINATION OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION TONIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. THUS HAVE INDICATED AS VICINITY ALL TAFS BETWEEN 09 AND
12Z. AFTER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AREA THIS MORNING MOIST
UNSTABLE AND A STRONG SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
TILL AROUND 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG VICINITY OF KLUK EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE THE MID CLOUDS THICKEN. CONCERN THAT
VICINITY WORDING OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
ESPECIALLY KDAY...KCMH AND KLCK WITH STORM PREDICTION CENTERS
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE JUST NORTH OF THIS AREA. WILL MONITOR
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

HAYDU

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

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