Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
359 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING SE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A S/W IN
ADVANCE OF FRONTAL BNDRY.  TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THE S/W MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  THERE IS DECENT INSTABILITY...GENERALLY 1500-2000 J/KG.
SPC HAS PUT THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SEVERE TS WATCH THIS EVENING...THE
WEST UNTIL 8 PM AND THE EAST UNTIL 10 PM. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY SOMEWHAT AS IT APPROACHES THE
FCST AREA...BUT ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND H5 RIDGING BUILDS
AS PCPN STAYS JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD
ACRS OH VLY.  UPR FLO WILL BE ZONAL TO BEGIN ON WED WITH SVRL MID
LVL DISTURBANCES MOVING QUICKLY EAST ACRS REGION.  AT THE
SURFACE...FRNTL BNDRY WILL BE LOCATED ACRS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.  STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THE
BNDRY WILL BE LOCATED IN THE REGION FROM DAY TO DAY...BUT ONE THING
THAT CAN BE SAID IS THAT THE BNDRY WILL MOVE LITTLE AS IT LAYS OUT
PARALLEL TO THE MID/UPR LVL FLO AND STRONG UPR RIDGE HOLDS ACRS SE
CONUS.  THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL S/WVS PASSING THRU OH VLY/LWR GRT
LKS...A FRNTL BNDRY AT THE SFC AND AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO AN EXTENDED CHANCE FOR TSTMS FROM MID WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.  ATTEMPTING TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL
BE IS STILL DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.  HAVE CONTINUED
PREV FCST TREND OF MAINTAINING A 30-40 POPS FROM WED AFTN AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

APPEARS THAT MID/UPR LVL FLO WILL TRANSITION FROM A ZONAL PATTERN TO
A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS STRONG UPR
RIDGE SETS UP ACRS WESTERN CONUS WITH A DVLPG UPR TROF EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  00Z ECMWF AND 06/12Z GFS ALL PICKED UP ON THIS
TREND AND WERE CONSEQUENTLY FOLLOWED FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. THIS
CHANGE IN PATTERN SHOULD HELP TO PUSH FRNTL BNDRY SOUTHWARD BY LATE
WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR A DRIER...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO SPREAD
INTO REGION FROM THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH 12Z GFS NOW INDCG FRNTL
BNDRY MAY CLEAR REGION SAT NIGHT AND ERLY SUN...HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE
POPS IN THRU SUN AS ECMWF INDCG SFC HI PRES AND UPR TROF WILL BE A
LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD SE INTO FCST AREA.  AS STATED ABV...DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WX WITH SEASONAL TEMPS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE NEW
WEEK.  TEMPS ARE TRICKY WITH BNDRY IN AREA AND SVRL OPPORTUNITIES AT
TSTMS.  KEPT AFTN HIGHS IN M/U80S THRU FRI...WITH A SLOW DROP TO
AROUND 80 DEG FOR HIGHS BY MON.  LOWS IN M/U60S FOR LATE WEEK WILL
SLIDE BACK TO AROUND 60 DEG ONCE FRNTL BNDRY DROPS SOUTH OF REGION.

RYAN

&&

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN IS FOR STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA. THEY HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST
ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
OHIO. SO AT THIS POINT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON A THUNDERSTORM
OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. OPTED TO JUST USE CB DESIGNATOR
AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE DIURNAL
CUMULUS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN MIST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
500 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-200900-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-
DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
500 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

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