Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHRA/TSRA IN THE EAST APPEARED TO FIRE ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
AND WERE ENHANCE BY A WEAK WAVE MOVING WEST/ THUNDERSTORMS IN
INDIANA ARE ALONG THE CLDFNT THAT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE FA
DURING IN THE NEXT 12 HRS. PLAYED THE BEST POPS THIS EVENING IN
THE EAST ALONG WITH THE NW.

EVEN THOUGH FRONT PUSHES INTO FA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...SO GRADUALLY DROPPED POPS
TO 20 BY SUNRISE. FRONT STRADDLES THE FA ON THU. WITH HEATING OF
THE DAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...WENT WITH LIKELY POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON.

GFS IS QUICKER IN PUSHING THE FRONT EAST THAN THE NAM. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION.

DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MAV TEMP GUIDANCE.

SITES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
SIMILAR SITUATION TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONG RIDGE
DOMINATING ERN US. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS
MID LEVEL S/W APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ASSOCIATED FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL MI TO SOUTH OF
K0RD. THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE VERY SLOW SWD PROGRESS TODAY. BEST
CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSEST
TO THE FRONT. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER 20Z AS HIGH/MID CLOUDS HAVE
LIMITED CU DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND AREA OF FOCUS
IS WEAK LL CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR KCLE TO KCMH...CURRENTLY
RESULTING IN SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL OH. ALL ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY 00Z. REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN ANTICIPATED
FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP THINGS FROM
GETTING TOO LOW. MENTIONED TEMPO IFR AT KLUK AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.
DPH

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
513 AM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-010915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-
DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
513 AM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG A COLD FRONT. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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