High Wind Watch 2, NWS Wilmington, OH

Fayette County, IN, Union County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Auglaize County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Darke County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Preble County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Union County, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
303 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW NR THE BOOT HEEL OF MO IS FCST TO TRACK NE THRU KY AND
ACRS SE OH TONIGHT. 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
TRACK.

W AND NW AREAS HAVE RECEIVED .5 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN SO
FAR...WITH THE SE .25 TO .50. H7 DEFORMATION AREA HAS FORMED OVER
THE NW AND MODELS INCREASE IT OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WITH TRACK OF
LOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY...THE SE 1/2 WILL HAVE
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. GFS IS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THAN THE NAM. GFS HAS SFC LI BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR SE.
WITH THESE FACTORS EXPECT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THRU 12Z
SAT...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE FFG
IS HIGHER THAN THESE NUMBERS...HAVE ISSUED A FFA FOR TONIGHT FOR
THE FA...BASED ON ABOVE THOUGHTS.

LOW PULLS INTO ERN LAKES ON SAT AND DEEPENS. GFS IS THE SLOWEST IN
PULLING THE PCPN OUT OF THE FA SAT. LINGERED SOME POPS EARLY IN
THE EAST. STRONG CAA COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THEY SHOULD BE RAIN. NAM AND GFS BRING
H8 WINDS OF 50 KTS IN THE FA SAT AFTN. NOT SURE THE N CAN REACH
WARNING CRITERIA ON THE WINDS...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WENT WITH
HIGH WIND WATCH THERE. ACROSS THE SOUTH WENT WITH WIND ADVISORY.

HIGH BUILDS IN SAT NGT. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AROUND 00Z.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST SATURDAY NGT. H8 WINDS ARE
ONLY 35 KTS ON SUNDAY...SO DONT EXPECT WINDS TO BE AS STRONG FOR SUNDAY.

TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

SITES

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST.
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVY FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL SOUTH OF THE RIVER
AS IT BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THUS...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH CAME IN COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT A MODERATING TREND EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
WITH READINGS APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN OVER A WEEK. COOL READINGS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTER THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR MEMPHIS WITH
PRIMARY WARM FRONT ALONG KY/TN BORDER WITH A SECONDARY WARM
FRONT/TROF FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA INTO NW OHIO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO TAFS. IT IS GOING TO RAIN WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND IFR VSBYS THROUGH 03Z TO 06Z. LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
EAST OF TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE PRECIP AND STRONG NW FLOW. IN FACT AFTER 12Z WHEN MIXING
INCREASES DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40
KTS. GUSTS AFTER 18Z MAY EVEN BE HIGHER.

TIPTON

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-074.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ070>073-
     077>082-088.

KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.

IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ066-
     073>075-080.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
502 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-280915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-
DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
502 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.