Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Wilmington, OH

Dearborn County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Union County, IN, Boone County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Mason County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Licking County, OH, Madison County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Preble County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Warren County, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
313 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

.AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP A STALLED FRONT WILL RESULT IN LESS THAN
IDEAL AVIATION WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT CONDITIONS AT
CVG AND LUK INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL 16Z. OTHER
SITES WILL SEE DETERIORATING WEATHER TONIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES. RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END LATER IN THE
FORECAST WHEN THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER BEHIND THE LOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BOUNDARY FROM SURFACE LOW NEAR KPAH TO
SOUTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA. AT 18Z 100 MB INSTABILITY AROUND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. KILN RADAR IS SHOWING
SCATTERED CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

CONCERNED ABOUT THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THIS
EVENING CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE AND FLOODING THREAT. MCS NEAR SURFACE
LOW (KPAH) IS SLOWLY DIVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD NOT AFFECT US...HOWEVER CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY INTO THE TRI-STATE THIS
EVENING. WITH 500 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KTS THIS EVENING AND SOME DRY
AIR ALOFT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. AFTER
LOOKING AT WIND FIELDS...TRAINING IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME FLOODING.

SECONDARY CONCERN...BUT JUST AS SERIOUS...IS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS
BROAD UPPER TROF DIGS INTO OHIO VALLEY AND SHARPENS. THIS IN TURN
BRINGS SURFACE LOW FROM WESTERN KY INTO SC OHIO BY 12Z THEN INTO
WESTERN PA. THIS BEING JULY WITH PWS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 2 INCH
AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST WILL
POST A FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THREE HR FFG
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES. WILL LEAVE SLGT CHC POPS
INTO THE EVENING AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH.

WILL GO WITH MAV TEMPS.

TIPTON

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS
HIGH PUSHES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MID WEEK...RETURN FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SET UP. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION...
WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. LATER IN
THE WEEK...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT PUSHING COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD
AREA. TIMING IS A STILL A BIT OF AN ISSUE SO WILL JUST GO WITH LOWER
CHANCE POPS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ053>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088
     FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM SATURDAY.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ089>100 FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM
     SATURDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR INZ058-059-066-073>075-080 FROM 8 PM
     FRIDAY TO 11 AM SATURDAY.
&&

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