Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Wilmington, OH

000 
WGUS71 KILN 182049
FFSILN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

OHC041-159-182230-
DELAWARE OH-UNION OH-
448 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL UNION AND SOUTHWESTERN
DELAWARE COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS HAD PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
RADAR ESTIMATED UP TO THREE INCHES HAD FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR.

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITH ANOTHER ONE 
TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH 630 PM EDT. RUNOFF FROM THIS 
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...MARYSVILLE... 
POWELL...BELLEPOINT...OSTRANDER...STATE ROUTE 257 AT US ROUTE 
36...WARRENSBURG AND WATKINS.

HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS RAPIDLY. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH ON THE THE ROAD. IT ONLY
TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...MOST FLOOD
RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

LAT...LON 4034 8336 4020 8344 4014 8306 4030 8312

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST KILN 88D INDICATING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE ILN CWA...SOME OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
SEVERE. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE CWA...AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. WITH
MARGINAL FORCING...EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SO HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH A MORE EASTERLY SURFACE-BASED FLOW. WITH TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OFF THE CAROLINAS DURING THE NEXT 24-48
HRS...EXPECT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO SLOW AS THEY APPROACH OUR AREA.
THUS EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER EAST COAST WILL THROW A MONKEY WRENCH INTO
EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR THE H5 W-E
ORIENTED RIDGE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE REGION WITH IMPULSES
PASSING OVER THE NERN OHVLY...WEAKENING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. CDFNT SETS UP W OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURS AND TRACKS SE
LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...INCREASING THE CHC FOR TS ACTIVITY.
H5 FLOW TURNS NW AND HELPS NOSE THE ERN EDGE OF H5 RIDGE INTO THE
TNVLY...ALLOWING NRLY FLOW AT THE SFC WITH A BUILDING HIGH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON FRI. CDFNT IS ALONG OHRIVER BY 12Z FRI AND
CONTINUES TO PUSH S THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF
PRECIP TO MAINLY KY COUNTIES STARTING FRI. A WAVE RIDES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EARLY SAT AS NOTED IN HPC PROGS AND THE GFS...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AS TO HOW FAR N IT WILL GET INTO CWA BEFORE ENTIRE FRONT
CONTINUES TO DROP INTO SERN U.S. BY SAT MORN. BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS
UP OVER ERN U.S. WITH SFC L RIDING ALONG IT TOWARDS THE PATH OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM.

BACK SIDE OF THIS FRONT WILL SEE A SFC HI BUILD OVER CWA SAT AFTN
AND SUN. NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO GLANCE NW FCST AREA SAT
NIGHT AS IT STRUGGLES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SFC HIGH BUT DOESNT
APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH FORCE TO DO SO. IT APPEARS TO WASH OUT N OF
FCST AREA SUN NIGHT. PREV FCST HAD IT WASHING OVER CWA WHERE NOW THE
PROGS ARE FOR OHVLY TO BE IN BETWEEN A NRN AND SRN SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT
MON DRY FROM PREV FORECAST AND PER SURROUNDING FOS. TUES WILL
LIKELY ALSO BE DRY BUT SCHC IS WARRANTED ALONG AND S OF OHRIVER DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS GENERALLY TOOK A LOWER TREND AFTER THURS WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE NRLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE REGION.

FRANKS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006/

AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA AND FAR WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THAT IS PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
MOST OF FA SO EXPECT TO SEE ACTIVITY BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE
CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN POTIONS OF FA. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
ALLOW FOR AN EARLY TEMPO TSRA AT KDAY BUT TRY TO LIMIT REMAINING
NORTHERN TAF SITES TO VCTS. SOME QUESTION EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH
THE STORMS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE WE BEGIN TO LOSE OUR BETTER
INSTABILITY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST ALLOW FOR VCTS AT
KCVG AND KLUK TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND AREAS OF BR. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH MVFR TYPE RESTRICTIONS
EXCEPT AT THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KLUK AND KILN WHERE WE
WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...

 /ISSUED 1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS...AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE AND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH...WITH
DECREASING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST HAD A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON SITUATION. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED JUST TO CLEAN UP WORDING
AND TWEAK POPS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

 /ISSUED 354 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO IN
PROXIMITY TO A FRONTAL BNDRY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGED FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

TODAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...GENERALLY 2000-3000
J/KG. THERE IS LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITING IN FCST TIME/HEIGHT PROFILES.  STILL...AS THE BNDRY SAGS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE. COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTH...BUT IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER/MID 90S IN THE SOUTH...WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S. ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S AT SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...THIS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FCST AS THE
FRONTAL BNDRY DISSOCIATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FCST AREA. HIGH AND
LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR THURSDAY...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE NORTH AS
ANOTHER BNDRY SAGS SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE 90S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI STRENGTHENS OVER SERN GTLKS WED AS THE H5 S/W PUSHES SE
THROUGH THE ERN EDGE OF H5 W-E ORIENTED RIDGE. THIS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BACK UP THROUGH THE DAY AND RETURN FLOW AT THE SFC OCCURS WED
NITE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC CDFNT THAT IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
OHVLY THURS NITE. H5 FEATURES ABOVE THE NEXT FRONT ARE NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO MOVE SE THROUGH THE RE-ESTABLISHED H5 RIDGE...AND THE MAIN
ENERGY BOTH H5 AND SFC STAYS N OF FCST AREA AS IT TRAVERSES THROUGH
THE GTLKS. INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOTED THURS
NIGHT JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. H5 FLOW TURNS NW AND HELPS
NOSE THE ERN EDGE OF H5 RIDGE WELL S OF OHVLY...ALLOWING NRLY FLOW
AT THE SFC WITH A BUILDING HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
FRI...KEEPING THE SFC FRONT OVER KY/TN BORDER. THIS SFC HI BUILDS
THROUGH SAT AFTNOON AND THE H5 FLOW REMAINS NW. NEXT DISTURBANCE IS
PROGGED TO GLANCE NE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT AS IT STRUGGLES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SFC HIGH BUT DOESNT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH FORCE TO DO
SO. IT APPEARS TO WASH OUT OVER FCST AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WHICH
SETS UP AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIP MON. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON MON...WILL GO WITH THE THINKING THAT THE
WASHED OUT FRONT ISNT THERE AND KEEP DRY TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY
WITH SURROUNDING FOS...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH PREV 0 AND 12Z MODEL
RUNS FROM GFS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL READINGS AFTER FROPA
THURS NIGHT...GETTING AWAY FROM THE HAZY HOT AND HUMID AMS LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

FRANKS

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
404 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074-
192015-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-
LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-
LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
ROSS-HOCKING-
404 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>072-077>082-088-192015-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-
BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-
MASON-LEWIS-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
404 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO REACH INTO THE MID OR
UPPER 90S THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING 100
DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. STAY INDOORS IN AIR CONDITIONING IF
POSSIBLE...AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     POWER LINES DOWN TROY                    40.04N  84.22W
07/18/2006                   MIAMI              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LINES DOWN COUNTY WIDE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
355 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     LARGE LIMB DOWN  TROY                    40.04N  84.22W
07/18/2006                   MIAMI              OH   SPOTTER

&&