Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
MOST OF NRN 1/2 FCST AREA REMAINS COVERED BY AN EXTENSIVE AC DECK
WITH SCT -SHRA. COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NW OHIO SW THRU NRN
INDIANA AND CNTRL ILLINOIS. CLOUDS ARE THINNER CLOSER TO FRNTL
BNDRY...AND HAVE SEEN CONVECTION FIRE ALONG THE BNDRY IN LAST
HOUR OR SO. SOUTH OF CLOUD SHIELD...HAZY SUNSHINE HAD ALLOWED FOR
GOOD DIURNAL HEATING AND CONSEQUENTLY MLCAPES ABV 2000 J/KG. AS
CONV TEMP HAS BEEN REACHED...TSTMS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DVLP ACRS
SRN AND WRN KENTUCKY. SHOULD SEE SCT CONVECTION DVLP AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD TOWARDS SRN INDIANA AND CVG AREA OVER NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS MID
LVL S/WV AND VORT MAX APPCH FROM WEST AND ANY LEFTOVER CONV
INHIBITION IS ERODED AWAY. CURRENT RUC INDCG SFC/LO LVL CONV AXIS
ACRS REGION WILL SET UP ACRS SRN INDIANA/OHIO AND NRN KY AFT 21Z.
THIS SHOUDL FOCUS WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY FOR LATE AFTN AND EVNG
IN THESE AREAS. HAVE INDICATED PCPN MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES INTO
EVNG HOURS...WITH HEAVIEST PCPN SETTING UP FOR KCVG/KLUK/KILN
WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER AND LO LVL CONV WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
MODELS HINTING AT SCT FRNTL CONVECTION HOLDING INTO LATE EVNG AND
OVERNIGHT AS BNDRY SLIDES SOUTH ACRS REGION. HAVE HELD ONTO VCSH
FROM MIDNIGHT ON. BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH WED MRNG AS
SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO REGION FROM THE NORTH. LINGERED AC
THRU END OF FCST PERIOD. SCT CU MAY ALSO FORM ACRS WEST
CNTRL/CNTRL OHIO BY MIDDAY WED AS MODEL SOUNDINGS NOTING LEFTOVER
LO LVL MOISTURE.

RYAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 1152 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006/

SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
SHRA WITH A FEW TSTMS CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACRS CNTRL PORTION OF
FCST AREA THIS MRNG. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER HAD
SEEN A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALREADY THIS MRNG...WHILE REMAINDER
OF FCST AREA UNDERNEATH PREDOMINANT MID LVL AC DECK WITH SCT
POCKETS OF SC ASSOCD WITH PCPN. TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S...WITH
L/M80S WHERE SUN WAS ACROSS SRN 1/3 FCST AREA.

HAVE READJUSTED POPS FOR AFTN JUST A BIT...BUT OVERALL FCST WILL
REMAIN THE SAME IN ZONES FOR AFTN. 14Z RUC INDCG SFC/LO LVL CONV
AXIS WILL DVLP AND ALIGN ITSELF ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA AS COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACRS SRN LWR MICHIGAN WEST INTO NRN
INDIANA AND CNTRL ILLINOIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP TO SOUTHEAST.
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST WHERE BEST HEATING HAS TAKEN
PLACE ACRS SRN INDIANA/OHIO AND NRN KENTUCKY. SCT PCPN CURRENTLY
MOVING OUT OF CVG AREA...WITH VIS SAT INDCG LARGE AREA OF CLEARING
ACRS SRN 1/2 OF INDIANA. EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLEARING TO
OVERSPREAD SW OHIO OVER NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MORE SUN AND BETTER
HEATING TAKING PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CHILLICOTHE-WILMINGTON-
BROOKVILLE LINE. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE BEST THREAT FOR SVR
STORMS WILL EXIST FOR AFTN/EVNG HOURS. RUC INDCG MLCAPES TO APPCH
2000-2500 J/KG BY MID AFTN WHILE BL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK (BETTER BL SHEAR WILL REMAIN INVOF FRNTL BNDRY FURTHER NORTH).
THIS WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF AN ISOLD TO SCT SVR THREAT AS OPPOSED
TO WIDESPREAD SVR POTENTIAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG MAX DELTA
THETA-E VALUES BTWN 20- 25K THIS AFTN/EVNG SO AGAIN APPEARS DMG
WINDS WILL BE MAIN SVR CONCERN.

EXPECT TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO DVLP OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACRS SRN 1/2
FCST AREA AS MID LVL S/WV AND ASSOCD VORT MAX APPCH FROM WEST.
ACRS NRN 1/2 FCST AREA...SHRA/TSTMS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF FRNTL BNDRY.
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPT GRIDS BUT OTHERWISE HAVE LEFT AFTN
HIGHS ALONE. WHILE PLENTY OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACRS NRN 1/2 FCST
AREA...STILL FEEL TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO 80S BY AFTN AS
CLOUDS THIN SOME.

UPDATE OUT...PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RYAN

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN TRANSITION WITH TROUGH MOVING BACK OVER
EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND EVENTUALLY DRIER WEATHER
TO OCCUR.

WITH SURFACE FRONT ON ITS WAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACCOMPANIED BY
AMPLE MOISTURE AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY...RAISED POPS TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS TODAY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND RELATIVELY STRONG WIND FIELDS. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR
TONIGHT...DROPPING TO CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

LOWERED TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIAMI VALLEY. REST OF
TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH COOL UPPER 70S EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...

THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2006

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA.  THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.  FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID
LEVEL TROUGH.  WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NORMAL READINGS.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE.
COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION...BUT CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.  RLG

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
501 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-050915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-
DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
501 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.