Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NW TO DROP INTO THEN AREA TONIGHT AND
LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS IMPULSES IN NW FLOW ALOFT AFFECT THE REGION.
EXPECT TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NW MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. COULD
SEE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE OLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE ACROSS THE
AREA...YIELDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ILL DEFINED W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH A DEVELOPING
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BRING A GENERAL SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH A COASTAL
BACKING ON ACCOUNT OF SEA BREEZE. THIS SETUP ALSO SOMETIMES GIVES
RISE TO TRICKY-TO-TIME CONVECTION POPPING UP TO THE NW AND HEADING
THIS WAY. RUC FCST SEEMS RATHER PLAUSIBLE IN TAKING A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACRS THE REGION AROUND 22Z. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THIS IMPLUSE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PIECE MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA IN
A SIMILAR FASHION JUST AFTER SUNSET SO THE VCTS WILL HAVE TO BE LEFT
IN MOST TERMINALS UNTIL 0300Z OR SO. IF SOME MORE CERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT COMES ABOUT THEN TEMPO GROUPS CAN
BE INSERTED.

&&

.MARINE...
RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBED SURFACE WIND
FIELDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. THE SYNOPTIC SW FLOW HAS REESTABLISHED
ITSELF OVER MOST OTHER AREAS WITH THE SEABREEZE NOW PRODUCING SOLID
15 KT WINDS NEARSHORE WITH A FEW GUSTS NOW RECORDED OVER 20 KNOTS AT
COASTAL MESONET SITES.

AN INDISTINCT BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL
BECOME MORE DISTINCT OVERNIGHT AS IT LIKELY FOCUSES CONVECTION ALONG
IT. BY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECT
TO SEE WINDS SHIFT YET AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH THE FRONT FINALLY
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

ASIDE FROM OCCASIONAL SEABREEZE-INDUCED GUSTS NEARSHORE AROUND 20
KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL
BE HIGHEST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FALL TO 2-3 FT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER FLOW EXPECTED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...05
MARINE...09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
340 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-210830-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-MARLBORO-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-GEORGETOWN-
340 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. STAY TUNED FOR ANY WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN WILMINGTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

AMZ250-252-254-256-210830-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
340 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. STAY TUNED FOR ANY WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN WILMINGTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

05

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