Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
930 AM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW JUST OFFSHORE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT IS
JUST CLIPPING THE COAST DOWN IN GEORGETOWN COUNTY. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STEADILY DECREASING MOISTURE TODAY HOWEVER WITH LARGE
UPPER LOW COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT SEE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL HELP EXTEND ACTIVITY BEYOND THIS
AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE AS STRONG AND WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THE FRONT IS
NOW OFFSHORE...AND LAPSE RATES AND WIND SHEAR VALUES NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER THEY ARE STILL GOOD ENOUGH THAT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
OF CHANCE POPS WILL COVER IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. COULD
SEE SOME BRIEF BR (3-6SM) THROUGH 12Z IF THE CIRRUS THINS OR BREAKS
DEVELOP. WEAK BOUNDARY HAS BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER TODAY
COULD SEE VCSH/VCTS.

&&

.MARINE...LOOKS LIKE MIXING HAS COMMENCED OVER THE WATERS AND THE
WIND HAS TAKEN ON A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. MIDDAY CWF UPDATE WILL
REMOVE THE VARIABLE WIND WORDING FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SEAS FCST
SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE

&&

SHORT TERM...REK
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...MBB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
313 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ096-097-099>101-SCZ034-046-161915-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-BLADEN-PENDER-
COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-HORRY-GEORGETOWN-
313 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A
RESULT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THIS AREA IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 359 UNTIL 900 PM EDT. THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ087-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-161915-
ROBESON-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-
313 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

REK