Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 PM EDT WED APR 26 2006

.NEAR TERM/SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF KMYR ON
WESTWARD. SBCAPE IN THE 1000-2000 RANGE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT
QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO NIL NORTH. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE FRONT WHICH MAY TEND TO INCREASE
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND SOME WAA KICKS IN JUST ABOVE THE BL.
OVERALL THOUGH THE SVR POTENTIAL SEEMS LIMITED IN NC. CONVECTION
MOVING INTO SC COUNTIES DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE THE PUNCH THEY HAD
AFTER INITIALLY FORMING OVER CAES CWA BUT A TRIPLE-POINT TYPE OF
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE SEA BREEZE MAY RE-
INVIGORATE STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS AND ALSO CAUSE A LOCALLY ENHANCED
TORNADO THREAT. THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTION IS IN WESTERN HORRY
COUNTY WITH THE SEABREEZE RUNNING SSW FROM THERE AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RUNNING W. AFTER INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION THE COLD
AIR MAY HAVE FREE REIGN TO SURGE SOUTHWARD AND THE WATCH
/CURRENTLY TIL 1000 PM/ WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED EARLY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTION ASSOC WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO
STRATIFORM RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER N GA
CAUSES INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. NON-CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL
RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH NW TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
COASTAL. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS TRAILING
VORT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ESP ALONG THE
COAST. SOME GUIDANCE WOULD IMPLY POPS WILL BE NEEDED INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FCST ITERATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO FOLLOWING TONIGHTS FROPA AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH RATHER SLOWLY. BY SATURDAY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORMING IN THE PLAINS WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH THE HIGH MOVING
OFFSHORE TO BRING MOISTURE BACK NORTH ACRS THE AREA. THE ACTUAL
SFC WARM FRONT WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE. SOME CHANCE POPS SEEM WARRANTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO CLIMO BY SUNDAY
DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ENDS UP. MUCH THE SAME FOR
MONDAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS PROBABLY STILL AROUND AND SOME WAA
PRECIPITATION. THE OCCLUDED STORM SHOULD BE PRESSING OFF TO THE
EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY AT WHICH POINT A DRY BUT STILL COOLISH FCST
WILL BE CALLED FOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST
SOUTH OF AREA WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SC TERMINALS COULD ALSO SEE CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE IN
THESE AREAS. HAVE USED PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL TERMINALS
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. USED TEMPO GROUPS IN AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS TO
ADDRESS CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE FRONT PUSHED THROUGH MYR AND 41013 THIS MORNING...THEN
STALLED. LATEST VIS PLACES IT ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
STABLE MARINE LAYER HAS PRECLUDED ANY CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. STILL ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING
THE WATERS BEGINNING THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH LATE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE LOW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT...PERHAPS LOW
20S MIDDAY THURSDAY. HAVE BUILT THE SEAS TO 5-6 FT THURSDAY IN THE
10-20 NM RANGE NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER...AND KEPT THEM UP THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. HAVE ALSO RAISED A SCA 15Z THU-06Z FRI..

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BACKDOOR FRONT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND A NORTHEAST SURGE EARLY SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AS A RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ250-252 FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 3
     AM FRIDAY.
&&

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...CRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1256 PM EDT WED APR 26 2006

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-271700-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-
1256 PM EDT WED APR 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 10 PM. THERE
MAJOR THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUIRED.

AMZ250-252-254-256-271700-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
1256 PM EDT WED APR 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 10 PM. THERE
MAJOR THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUIRED.

SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-271700-
MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-
GEORGETOWN-
1256 PM EDT WED APR 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 10 PM. THERE
MAJOR THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUIRED.

7

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
330 PM EDT WED APR 26 2006

SCZ023-032-033-039-262030-
DARLINGTON-FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DARLINGTON...FLORENCE...MARION...
KINGSTREE
330 PM EDT WED APR 26 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...

SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY 4 PM.
THESE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 25 MPH. AT 324 PM THESE
STORMS WERE NEAR PAMPLICO...MANNING...AND LYNCHBURG. THESE STORMS HAVE A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS THESE
STORMS CONTINUE ON THEIR TRACK...THEY WILL PASS OVER
AYNOR...GREELEYVILLE...KINGSTREE...TIMMONSVILLE AND FLORENCE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES.

JAN

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