Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
418 PM EDT MON APR 17 2006

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA. SVR WATCH GOOD UNTIL 8
PM. ALL INGREDIENTS THERE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE...EVEN WITH A LIMITING
MOISTURE. SEA BREEZE BNDRY WELL DEFINED NOW...AND WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL PLAYER WITH THE SEVERE CONVECTION. SFC COLD FRONT ALSO
DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO TRAVERSE
ALONG IT. UPPER LOW TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE AS IT GETS CAUGHT AND
ABSORBED BY THE LONG-WAVE TROF. THERE4...DO NOT SEE A LONG PLAYED
OUT SEVERE EVENT.

COLD FRONT DROPS ENTIRELY SOUTH OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...ENDING
ALL PCPN. EXCELLENT CHANGE IN AIR MASS WITH CAA IN EARNST BY TUE
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFYS. CAA CEASES BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE CWA BECOMING SANDWICHED BETWEEN 2 UPPER CUTOFF
SYSTEMS. TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL AVERAGE BELOW CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE ILM CWA REMAINS IN BETWEEN CUTOFF
SYSTEMS...WITH THE 1 OFF NOVA SCOTIA STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY AND
THUS SLOWING DOWN ANY FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE
MIDWEST. WILL SEE A WARMING TREND THESE 2 DAYS...REACHING NORMALS
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY LATE FRIDAY...THE GFS FINALLY WANTS TO
SLOWLY MOVE THE UPPER NOVA SCOTIA LOW SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ALLOWING THE
FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MIDWEST LOW TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR PCPN. SHULD SEE TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.
CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO MODELS NOTORIOUSLY
NOT HANDLING CUTOFF SYSTEMS VERY WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AS OF 19 UTC AND WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT SHIFTING TOWARD OUR AREA.
MODEL SHIFT THE FRONT TO QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY
MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK
INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT VALUES.  WITH THIS RAPIDLY
MOVING SYSTEM EXPECT THE SEAS AND WINDS TO QUICKLY FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT VALUES ON TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES THE HAIL. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECT THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SQUALL LINE TO AFFECT KILM AND KFLO EITHER SIDE OF 22Z. TOUGH CALL
REGARDING HOW MUCH ACTION THE MYRTLES SEE. COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE
SOME UNDERCUTTING LOWERED CIGS THRU FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DRYING AND VFR MAY RETURN SOON AFTER 06Z.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM SURF CITY TO S SANTEE RIVER UNTIL
         8AM TUESDAY.

&&

AVIATION...BACON
MARINE...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...HOEHLER
LONG TERM...HOEHLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
215 PM EDT MON APR 17 2006

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-180845-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-MARLBORO-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-GEORGETOWN-
215 PM EDT MON APR 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVER THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. THE MAIN
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. STAY TUNED FOR WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

AMZ250-252-254-256-180845-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
215 PM EDT MON APR 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. MARINERS
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT
MAY CREATE STRONG WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS. STAY TUNED FOR ANY
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL REACH
25 KT AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
518 PM EDT MON APR 17 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E MARION              34.18N 79.36W
04/17/2006                   MARION             SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO TREES DOWN ON HWY 76. CAMPER TOP BLOWN OFF ON HWY 41.

&&

43

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