Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
350 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR PRETTY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. SO FAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH BUT
THE SEA BREEZE IS ALSO TRYING TO ACTIVATE. ACTIVITY HAS ALSO BEEN
ENHANCED OVER CENTRAL SC BY A SMALL DISTURBANCE. SEA BREEZE
STORMS STILL SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING AGAINST THE WEAKENING
SUBSIDENCE ASSOC WITH THE DYING CLUSTER OF STORMS OFFSHORE. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 3000
J/KG...ESP ALONG I95...AND LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH PW
VALUES RANGING FROM 2 TO 2.25 INCHES BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INSTABILITY. A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
WILL COME TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT BUT THE INSTABILITY
WILL HAVE WANED AND ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS...ALTHOUGH STILL POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE. BASED UPON LATEST SAT
AND RADAR IMAGERY STILL HAVE HIGH END CHANCE POPS BUT A LAST
MINUTE DECISION FOR A PD OF LIKELY POPS MAY YET BE MADE.

EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS A LITTLE IFFY SINCE DIURNAL
PROCESSES MAY END UP AFFECTING ITS MOTION SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT IN
ADDITION TO THE MORE TYPICAL SYNOPTIC FORCES. HARD TO TELL WITH A
FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR. SURROUNDING OFFICES/HPC ARE GENERALLY
FAVORING THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE NAM.
THIS MEANS THAT CHANCE POPS WILL LINGER INTO TOMORROW WHEREAS THE
NAM WOULD IMPLY A DRY DAY. SINCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT INTO
THE AREA INVOLVES BATTLING A 590-PLUS RIDGE THINK SLOWER IS
BETTER. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW BUT MAY LINGER LONGER SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ON THURSDAY BUT A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. CHANCE POPS ONCE AGAIN WARRANTED...40S MOST
OF THE AREA TO BE JUST A LITTLE BIT ABOVE CLIMO. ON FRIDAY ANOTHER
UNUSUAL AUGUST COLD FRONT MAY BE ON THE WAY. THIS NEXT FRONT IS
PORTRAYED TO BE EVEN MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN TOMORROWS THOUGH AS
THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR BEHIND IT.
GFS-DEPICTED WAVE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE A RESULT OF FEEDBACK BUT
WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS ANYWAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE DRY DAY
AS THE COOLER AIR PUSHES IN...BEING DRIVEN BY A AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG TROUGH IN NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE ESE...AND FORECAST KEYS IN ON MODELS MOVING SHORT WAVE FROM
NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FROM 00Z-06Z WITH ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING SHOWERS FORECASTING INLAND VISIBILITY INTO
MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING HAZE...AND THEN VFR THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ACTIVE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN W OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE SW 15 KT FOR A GOOD PART OF TONIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 4
FT...EXCEPT 2 FT NEAR SHORE.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIMP S INTO THE AREA ON WED. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INROADS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
RIDGE IN PLACE. MY GRIDS WILL SHOW THIS WEAK BOUNDARY HANGING UP
ACROSS THE NC WATERS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO NW OR N...BUT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS WILL COVER IT.

AS THIS FIRST BOUNDARY BECOMES ILL-DEFINED WED NIGHT INTO THU...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE ON SW DIRECTION.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THIS WILL
ALLOW A POTENT COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE TO REINFORCE THE INITIAL
BOUNDARY AND HEAD S. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH LATER PORTION OF
FRI AND WITH ITS PASSAGE...WINDS WILL VEER TO N AND NE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SURGE S AND ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

I AM EXPECTING A GOOD SURGE WITH THIS BOUNDARY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
OF COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS OCEAN TEMPS IN THE MID 80S. CUT
BACK ON WAVE WATCH 3 NUMBERS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
NEIGHBORS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...TM
MARINE...RJD

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