Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
258 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ORGANIZED CONVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND THEN RAPIDLY COLLAPSE ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE OVER
NEW HANOVER COUNTY. THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE IN THE WEST-NORTH FLOW AND WEAK AT THAT.

SO FOR THIS EVENING WILL GO FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF A DARLINGTON TO WILMINGTON LINE AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE SOUTH.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH AN SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT
THE BEACHES. WILL PLACE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE PROBLEMATIC FORECAST WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW ESTABLISHED AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY
TO DEVELOP LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS ARE VERY
INCONSISTENT IN THE THERE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM SO AT THIS TIME
WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES STAYED AT CLIMO OR JUST BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY...ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES
OF A STORM ACTUALLY IMPACTING A TERMINAL REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THE TAF/S AT THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. IF RAINFALL DOES OCCUR AT ANY TERMINAL...VISIBILITIES
COULD POTENTIALLY FALL EVEN LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...WITH
A BIT MORE OF A SE WIND DIRECTION DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS TO OUR NORTH.  FRI-SAT WILL SEE A LOW CENTER IN THE EASTERLIES
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE FL/GA COAST.  EVEN THO THE WRF...GFS...AND
OTHER MODELS ALL SHOW SUCH A FEATURE...NHC IS NOT EXPECTING TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT.  THEREFORE WILL FAVOR THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION.

EXPECT A DECENT SE SWELL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS
AT LEAST A FOOT BELOW WW3 FOR MUCH OF THE TIME AS EVEN THE GFS SEEMS
TO PICK UP WINDS A BIT TOO MUCH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...HAWKINS
AVIATION...HAWKINS
MARINE...HAWKINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-221200-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-MARLBORO-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-
320 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. IN
ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINING
AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SCZ032>034-039-046-221200-
FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-GEORGETOWN-
320 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. IN
ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINING
AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AMZ250-252-254-256-221200-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
320 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1
NM OR LESS AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

JAQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
359 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

NCZ087-096-212200-
ROBESON-BLADEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN
359 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD ROBESON AND BLADEN COUNTIES...

AT 355 PM...A LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED
FROM RAEFORD TO THE SOUTH OF FAYETTEVILLE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. ALSO
FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
ROBESON AND BLADEN COUNTY BY 4 PM AND REACH INTO LUMBERTON AND
ELIZABETHTOWN BETWEEN 420 AND 430 PM.

HAWKINS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
511 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

NCZ087-096-097-SCZ017-023-024-212215-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN...BURGAW...
SURF CITY...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON
511 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

...STRONG STORMS PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH...

AT 510 PM...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SOCIETY
HILL IN DARLINGTON COUNTY...EAST TO MAPLE HILL IN PENDER COUNTY.
THIS AREA OF STORMS IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS WITH AS
MUCH AS TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR POSSIBLE.

IF STORMS ARE APPROACHING YOUR AREA...MOVE INDOORS. MOTORIST SHOULD
PREPARE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AS WELL.

43

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