Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
653 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS IN
THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CLOUD COVER AND QPF HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASED IN
THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...TRAINING
CELLS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

PREVIOUS UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 PM EDT...
HAVE UPDATED THE MARINE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FROM THE NHC. THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED
A BIT CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COAST AND SLOWED A BIT...THEREFORE HAVE
INCREASED WINDS/SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE THIS
AFTERNOON...NOW IN THE 90S MUCH VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE INLAND SOUTH
CAROLINA FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FIRE IN THIS REGION BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE NC MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...
ORGANIZATION AIDED BY MODEST SPEED SHEAR IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE THE CAP AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE WEAKEST.

VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH CAPES OF 1000-1400
J/KG...A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE SEABREEZE
ADVANCING INLAND...AND THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR COULD HELP
A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT. SPC
HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST LOWS OF THE YEAR SO
FAR AS 975 MB WINDS REMAIN >= 20 KT WHICH MAY INHIBIT MUCH OF AN
INVERSION FROM DEVELOPING. HAVE FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 70S SOUTH
OF FLORENCE TOWARD MYRTLE BEACH AND SOUTHPORT.

A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE THROUGH THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LOOKS TO BRING 50-70%
COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND DIVE TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WE USED HPC QPF FORECASTS WHICH INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY HAS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ATTACHED IT TO
BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES IN FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO.
ALBERTO IS A VERY SHEARED STORM AND IN FACT LOOKS AS IF THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER WILL HAVE TROUBLE EVER RE-LINKING WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION NOW WELL TO THE NE. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS
CONTINGENT ON THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION REMAINING COUPLED. FOR NOW WE
HAVE LOWERED FORECAST POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THAT
LESS MOISTURE MAY BE COMING UP THE COAST AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
LATER UPDATES WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER REFINE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ASSUMING THAT ALBERTO DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO THE AREA...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. BY SATURDAY...AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ADVECT A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
TRIGGERS IN EXTENDED-RANGE GUIDANCE...HAVE HELD POPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AT 20 PERCENT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE GENERALLY NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT TO SEE GENERALLY SW WINDS THROUGH MONDAY THOUGH NORTHERN
AREAS COULD GO NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT IF THE FRONT DROPS BACK INTO THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO N MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH.  EXPECT TO SEE WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE N TO NE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ALBERTO PASSES BY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PLAN TO CONTINUE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS TONIGHT.  WILL DROP SCA AS SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED.  DO PLAN TO CARRY SCA CONDITIONS AT 41013
TONIGHT THOUGH.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR SCA...THOUGH WE COULD SEE 20 KT AS
ALBERTO GOES BY.  SEAS COULD ALSO REACH 8 FT AT 20 NM IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STORM.  CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE TERMINALS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY...WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP IN THE KILM TAF FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES FOR LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
CEILINGS ARE PROBABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...

&&

UPDATE...JAQ
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...TRA
MARINE...RAN
AVIATION...JAQ