Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...BROAD SINKING
MOTION AND DRIER SURFACE AIR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS KEPT A LID ON NEW CONVECTION THUS FAR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE UNDER THIS LID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 80S BY 2 PM AND DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INLAND
TO LOWER 60S ON THE COAST. IT IS THIS UNEXPECTEDLY DRY AIR WHICH HAS
LIKELY KEPT CONVECTION ABSENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL
SATELLITE/RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW NEW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT IS NOW FORMING IN THE CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. IT REMAINS
POSSIBLE NEW CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
THIS POTENTIAL IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO QUANTIFY WITH FEWER BOUNDARIES
NOW DISCERNIBLE.

GIVEN THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES NOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...ANY STORMS ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP COULD
EASILY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. INCREASING MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THIS
EVENING WILL ALSO ADD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH THE
SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE UNIFORMLY SW (OR EVEN WSW FARTHER W
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA) THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY BE
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT.

HAVE REDUCED POPS FROM EARLIER THINKING TO 30-55 PERCENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATER THIS EVENING...DRYING AND CLEARING IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD SLIP INTO THE 30S OVER SOME
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS. WHILE FROST IS NOT
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT JUST
YET...ESPECIALLY IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE
THURSDAY WITH A MODIFICATION BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL DEWPOINTS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY SATURDAY WITH READINGS POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 80S
AGAIN. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND
WITH 20-30 PERCENT MAINLY DIURNAL POPS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
DRIER AND COOLER...BUT STILL CLIMATOLOGICAL...WEATHER EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS HAVE NOT YET BEGUN TO INCREASE AS EXPECTED.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN OVER
WATERS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. KEEPING SCA HEADLINES FOR NC WATERS WITH SCEC
HEADLINES FOR SC WATERS.

COLD FROPA IS STILL EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS ROUGH OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE
SCA CONDITIONS NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS BUT EVEN AREAS WITH SEAS 5 FT
OR LESS WILL BE TREACHEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING AND JUST AFTER RAPID
WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OFFSHORE FLOW VEERING
TO SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY EVENING AS CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY EVENT BUT STILL TO EARLY TO TELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ON
TUESDAY. THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL BELOW CRITICAL
VALUES. ALTHOUGH GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WIND SPEEDS APPEAR
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS...RESULTING IN ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES MAY FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY IN SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ONCE A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
         UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...TRA
MARINE...III
FIRE WEATHER AND AVIATION...JAQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
428 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-040630-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-MARLBORO-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-
428 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

TORNADO WATCH 148 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS COULD CREATE ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SKYWARN SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIONS.

SCZ039-046-040630-
WILLIAMSBURG-GEORGETOWN-
428 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS COULD CREATE ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIONS.

AMZ250-252-254-040630-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
428 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

TORNADO WATCH 148 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. VERY LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IS EFFECT THOUGH TONIGHT FROM SURF CITY
NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THOUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FROM SURF CITY NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SKYWARN SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIONS.

AMZ256-040630-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
428 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIONS.

JAQ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
600 PM EDT MON APR 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     HAIL             1 N MULLINS             34.22N 79.25W
04/03/2006  E1.00 INCH       MARION             SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED 1 MILE NORTH OF MULLINS ALONG
            HIGHWAY 41

&&

NEILES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
602 PM EDT MON APR 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             MULLINS                 34.20N 79.25W
04/03/2006  E0.88 INCH       MARION             SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AS WELL AS A HOUSE STRUCK BY
            LIGHTNING

&&

NEILES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
613 PM EDT MON APR 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             EVERGREEN               34.42N 78.90W
04/03/2006  E0.75 INCH       COLUMBUS           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN EVERGREEN.

&&

NEILES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 PM EDT MON APR 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             CLARKTON                34.49N 78.65W
04/03/2006  E1.00 INCH       BLADEN             NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN CLARKTON.

&&

NEILES