Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
405 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SVR CONVECTION IS ONGOING OVER THE PEE DEE REGION OF SC IN RESPONSE
TO A PIEDMONT TROF AND MODEST UPPER DIFLUENCE.  UPPER TROF AXIS
STILL LURKING A BIT FARTHER UPSTREAM AND HELPING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION JUST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE FIRST PERIOD IS WW 402 AND ONGOING
CONVECTION.  AT THIS POINT FIGURE THAT COVERAGE AFTER THE VALID TIME
OF THE TONIGHT FORECAST WILL MERIT SCATTERED WORDING.  PRECIP
CHANCES WILL DECREASE QUITE RAPIDLY BY MIDNIGHT.

ROUGHLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER WITH UPPER
RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE MUCH LESS.
STILL JUST JUICY ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT A 20 POP IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IS WARRANTED.  LATER SHIFTS MAY FIND THAT IS EVEN
TOO PESSIMISTIC.

COLD FRONT DROPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ON
DEWPOINTS AND MIN TEMPS.  MAX TEMPS SUNDAY LOOK NEARLY AS WARM AWAY
FROM THE WATER AS TODAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
HPC GUIDANCE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE MADE. COASTAL TROF DEVELOPS ON WED SO
HAVE INCLUDED A 20 POP IN THE GRIDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THAT WILL
REMAIN SILENT IN THE ZFP.  PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
CLIMO...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS INITIALIZE UNDER VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE THEN CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS
TO ADDRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS PIEDMONT TROUGH
GETS ACTIVE IN ALL TERMINALS WITH ACTIVITY COMMENCING EARLY IN FLO
AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

USED PREVAILING VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS AFTER 0000 UTC. NEXT
PACKAGE...0000 UTC ISSUANCE...WILL LIKELY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS PINPOINTING ACTIVITY WITH TEMPO GROUPS.

WILL LIKELY BE SOME FOG AROUND TONIGHT AFTER ACTIVITY ENDS. THE FOG
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF WHO RECEIVES THE RAIN AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THESE TRENDS
AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
CONVECTION KEEPING THINGS BUSY SO WILL KEEP SHORT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FETCH CONTINUES TO PREVAIL AND SEAS ARE CLOSER TO 5 FT
ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG JET TRAVERSING BY TONIGHT
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW SPEEDS
TO TONIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. DURING SUNDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WITH WEAKER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THE WIND MAY VEER TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST IN RESPONSE THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAS
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...PFAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-271000-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW
HANOVER-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG
-GEORGETOWN
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.

THE SEVERE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL THE SIZE
OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH
OF TONIGHT.

AMZ250-252-254-256-271000-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RE-DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SEVERE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL THE SIZE
OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
530 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             8 NE ATKINSON           34.61N 78.07W
05/26/2006  E1.75 INCH       PENDER             NC   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 421 NORTHEAST
            OF ATKINSON

&&

PFAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
552 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             SOCASTEE                33.69N 79.01W
05/26/2006  E1.00 INCH       HORRY              SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL FROM 1725 TO 1730 EDT IN SOCASTEE.

0545 PM     HAIL             MYRTLE BEACH            33.70N 78.89W
05/26/2006  E0.75 INCH       HORRY              SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL NEAR INTERSECTION OF US 17 BYPASS AND HWY
            544

&&

RAS

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