Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1030 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

.UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON)...
STILL LOOKING WELL ON TRACK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.  MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE...3000 J/KG CAPE
AND -9 LI IF MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TO BE BELIEVED. UPPER TROF
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING RESPECTABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT.

SPS ALREADY OUT TO HIGHLIGHT THE SVR WX RISK...AND WILL JUST BE
FRESHENED UP LATER THIS MORNING.  ZFP UPDATE WILL BE MAINLY TO CLEAN
UP THE WORDING AND REMOVE MENTION OF LATE MORNING PRECIP.  WITH KLTX
VWP ALSO SHOWING 25-30 KT AT 2000 FEET...WILL ALSO BEEF UP THE WIND
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IN STORE FOR THE CWA...PROBABLY STARTING
AROUND 20Z OVER FLO...MOVING TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND 22-23Z.
MARINE LAYER MAY KEEP STRONGEST CONVECTION INLAND THROUGH 00Z. GOOD
LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25+ KNOTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER BY
02-03Z AS STRONGEST OMEGA PUSHES OFF THE COAST. PROBABLY SEE A MID
CLOUD CEILING BEHIND THE STORMS. MID LEVEL RHS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND
10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. SEAS ARE AROUND 5 FT AT FRYING PAN...4-5 FT AT THE CORMP/USMC
ONSLOW BAY BUOY AND AROUND 3 FT AT THE USC WAVE GAUGE AT SPRING MAID
PIER. ALTHOUGH WINDS/SEAS ARE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT THE
MOMENT THE WAVE STEEPNESS IS STEEP GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHTS
WITH DOMINANT PERIODS GENERALLY AROUND 6 SECONDS OR LESS. IN
ADDITION THE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN DURING THE DAY WHICH
SUPPORTS KEEPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DYNAMICS...BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WILL BECOME THE MAIN
INFLUENCES ACROSS THE ILM CWA THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WITH TODAYS
INSOLATION AND MID TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS...THE ATM WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE AND BECOME PRIMED AND READY WHEN DYNAMICS INDUCED BY THE
CLOSED LOW BEGIN INTERACTING. AS A RESULT...THE ILM CWA SHULD
OBSERVE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. WILL REFLECT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITHIN ISSUANCES OF THE HWO AND SPS.

THE UPPER CLOSED LOW OPENS UP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH PART OF IT
BEING SHEARED AND ABSORBED IN THE MAIN WESTERLIES AS AN OPEN
WAVE...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION SLOWLY MIGRATING TO OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE EXTENDED. ITS DURING THIS LATTER
TIME WHEN THE TRANSFORMATION TO A CUTOFF LOW UNDER A RATHER LARGE
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURS. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THE SFC TROF/COLD
FRONT AND 5H TROF LINE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...AND LIKELY WILL BE
JUST ENUF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO CONTINUE A LOW POP. DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC AND MID-LEVEL TROF ROTATE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH A CLEARING TREND ENSUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER AND SFC RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE AREA WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE CUTOFF LOW
MEANDERING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS...AND WHETHER IT SHOULD THROW
BACK ANY CLOUDINESS AND/OR PCPN. MODELS ARE IN DECISIVE AS A GROUP
CONCERNING THE CLOUDINESS FROM THIS LOW....BUT THEY DO KEEP THE ILM
CWA PCPN-LESS. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED SLITELY MORE CLOUDS ALONG
COASTAL COUNTIES.

FOR THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN WITH WX FEATURES
FINALLY PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FCST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

UPDATE...RAS
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...SRP
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...HOEHLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-271000-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW
HANOVER-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG
-GEORGETOWN
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.

THE SEVERE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL THE SIZE
OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH
OF TONIGHT.

AMZ250-252-254-256-271000-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RE-DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SEVERE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL THE SIZE
OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

15

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             QUINBY                  34.23N 79.73W
05/26/2006  E1.00 INCH       FLORENCE           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

PFAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
336 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     HAIL             3 S MARION              34.13N 79.40W
05/26/2006  E1.00 INCH       MARION             SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
342 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             5 W MARION              34.18N 79.49W
05/26/2006  E1.00 INCH       MARION             SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

PFAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
348 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     HAIL             MULLINS                 34.20N 79.25W
05/26/2006  E0.88 INCH       MARION             SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
355 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             LAKE CITY               33.87N 79.75W
05/26/2006  E0.75 INCH       FLORENCE           SC   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL

&&

PFAFF