Coastal Flood Statement 12, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1130 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

.SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ERNESTO HAS GENERATED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
REGION. KLTX STP INDICATES LARGE AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITH 10-12 INCH
AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY. ERNESTO IS NEARING THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST AND ADDITIONAL 4-8 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION IN THE AREA
OF STRONG CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF ERNESTO. BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
EXTENDS FROM DILLON TO GEORGETOWN COUNTIES. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE NORTHEAST ZONES. STRONG WIND
GUSTS REPORTED ON THE LOCAL MESONET AND COASTAL STATIONS. MADE
SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER COASTAL STATIONS
THROUGH 05Z...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
THAT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR TO IFR OVER MOST AREAS
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS IN
THERE EVEN AFTER ERNESTO EXITS TO THE NORTH. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
GUST NEAR 40 KTS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 03Z...WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 50 KTS AT ILM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER MYR AND CRE FIRST...WITH MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KTS OVER ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
STORE FOR FRIDAY...GUSTING OVER 20 KTS OCCASIONALLY AS GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE PRETTY TIGHT. CEILINGS WILL HOVER AROUND 2000 FT...WITH
CONDITIONS FINALLY GOING VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ERNESTO IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST WEST OF CAPE FEAR. 41013 HAS
BEEN REPORTING WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60 KT. GIVEN THAT SEAS ARE
RUNNING 20 TO 22 FT...THE REPORTED GUSTS ARE LIKELY CLOSE TO SURFACE
WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR OVERNIGHT THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY CHANGES TO CWF OVERNIGHT WILL BE TO
TWEAK REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT FORECAST AND INCORPORATE LATEST DATA
FROM NHC AT 11 PM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ087-096-097-099>101 UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRI.
  ...HURRICANE WATCH FOR NCZ097-100-101.
  ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ097-100-101.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ096-099 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY. SC...FLOOD
WATCH FOR SCZ024-033-034 UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRI.
  ...HURRICANE WATCH FOR SCZ034-046.
  ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SCZ034-046.
MARINE...HURRICANE WATCH FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
  ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

SHORT TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...III

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