Wind Advisory 22, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WWUS73 KICT 112356
NPWICT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
656 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2006


KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098-120100-
/O.EXP.KICT.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-060412T0000Z/
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-
CHASE-RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-SUMNER-
COWLEY-ELK-CHAUTAUQUA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUSSELL...LINCOLN...GREAT BEND...
ELLSWORTH...SALINA...LYONS...MCPHERSON...MARION...
COTTONWOOD FALLS...HUTCHINSON...NEWTON...EL DORADO...AUGUSTA...
EUREKA...KINGMAN...WICHITA...ANTHONY...HARPER...WELLINGTON...
WINFIELD...ARKANSAS CITY...HOWARD...SEDAN
656 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2006

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING. THEREFORE THE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

$$

JMC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
323 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT THEN NEAR RECORD WARMTH
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

TONIGHT-WED:
EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING
LARGE SCALE MIXING IN CHECK. SURFACE WINDS CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA OR A LITTLE BELOW, SO WILL PUT OUT A SHORT WIND ADVISORY
OUT FOR THIS EVENING FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135.  WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PUSHING INTO CEN KS AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS SRN
NEBRASKA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PUT A DAMPER ON ANY KIND OF SURFACE
HEATING AND INCREASED INSTABILITY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY, WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALSO LACKING.  SO CHANCES OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA IN CEN KS LOOK RATHER SLIM AS THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS CEN/SERN KS OVERNIGHT.  COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED TSRA IN
CEN KS BEFORE SUNSET AS MID LEVEL COOLING WEAKENS THE CAP SOME.
SEEING SOME HINT OF THIS SOUTH OF HAYS WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWING SOME CU DEVELOPMENT. INVERTED-V SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WITH
WIND THE MAIN THREAT. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING FOR THIS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN KS. ANY
INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
STAY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.  SO WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE
NEAR EMP AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH.

BOUNDARY STALLS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS OK ON WED,
WITH WEAK RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
IN PLACE FOR MOST OF KS.  THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE NICEST DAY OF
THE WEEK, GIVEN SUNNY SKIES, WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPS.

THU-FRI:
WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES FOR THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME, WITH SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES LEADING TO TEMPS RISING TO RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD LEVELS. NAM 1000-850H THICKNESS PROGS AND 850H TEMPS
SUGGEST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH GFS SLIGHTLY COOLER.  WILL GO
WITH THE GFS TEMPS FOR NOW AS NAM LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE.

SAT-TUE:
NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SAT, WITH STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.
LATEST GFS SHOWING SIGNS OF COMING AROUND TO ECMWF SOLUTION OF
SHEARING THIS SYSTEM OUT, FURTHER TO THE NORTH, BUT STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCES STILL WARRANTED FOR SAT AFTN WITH WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER WARM MID
LAYER AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONVECTION CAPPED,
SO WILL NOT RAISE POPS ABOVE CURRENT SLIGHT VALUES.

AFTER A SMALL COOL DOWN ON SUN, TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND NICELY FOR MON
AND TUE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WEEK AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, AS GFS 850 TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS IN THE
LOWER-MIDDLE 80S.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  80  56  89 /  10   0   5   5
HUTCHINSON      52  81  55  89 /  10   0   5   5
NEWTON          53  80  56  89 /  10   0   5   5
ELDORADO        54  80  57  89 /  10   0   5   5
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  82  58  89 /  10   5   5   5
RUSSELL         48  80  53  90 /  20   0   5   5
GREAT BEND      49  81  54  90 /  20   0   5   5
SALINA          51  80  54  90 /  20   0   5   5
MCPHERSON       52  80  55  89 /  20   0   5   5
COFFEYVILLE     56  82  58  89 /  10   5   5   5
CHANUTE         55  80  57  88 /  10   5   5   5
IOLA            54  79  57  88 /  10   5   5   5
PARSONS-KPPF    56  81  58  89 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-
082-083-091>094-098.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1117 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-121730-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1117 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE A EXTREME RANGELAND FIRE INDEX...FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY. THE RANGELAND FIRE INDEX WILL BE
VERY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND
HAIL AROUND THE SIZE OF NICKELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...AS A STRONG STORM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE
COULD BE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.
PLEASE CHECK LATER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FOR MORE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION ON THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPING WEATHER SCENARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

CJ/ADK