Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AND SECONDARILY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

TONIGHT:
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE
TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE DRYLINE EASTWARD PROGRESSION SOME. THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE
PUSHING OUT OF THE FLINT HILLS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN KS EARLY THIS
EVENING. MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND 70 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
SOME LOW-LEVEL BACKING OF WINDS POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN PORTION OF
CENTRAL KS THROUGH SOUTHEAST KS INTO EARLY EVENING, THEREFORE IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A COUPLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH
EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY AROUND 03Z. IN
ADDITION...INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF HILL CITY WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LEADING TO INTENSE
SFC-800 MB MIXING. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY IN MUCH OF AREA
BEHIND DRYLINE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...SO EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TIL
03Z. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHILE OCCLUDING BY LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN KS.
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY UNDERNEATH THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL IS
PROGGED ALONG WITH DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA.
THEREFORE RAISED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN OUR AREA. THE GFS
AND NAM SHOW AN INTENSE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WITH
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 800 MB. THIS
MAY RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS DURING FRIDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FRIDAY
EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ADVISORY IN 2ND PERIOD FOR NOW GIVEN
CURRENT WATCHES AND ADVISORIES ALREADY IN EFFECT. DECREASING
CLOUDS/DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A
CHILLIER NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S.

SAT-SUN:
BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED AS OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KS ON
SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED WITH LEE TROFFING AND A RETURN TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MON-THURS:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROF EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING...DRYLINE MAY
STAY CAPPED MONDAY WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING OVER KS
REGION. HOWEVER...AS SHORTWAVE TROF COMES OUT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONG FORCING MAY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DEPENDING ON QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THEREFORE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MON
NIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT LOOKS REASONABLE IN GRIDS. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGGED OVER KANSAS WED-THURS AS AN
UPPER LOW FORMS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST PER GFS/ECMWF.
THEREFORE...KEEPING FORECAST DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  61  37  60 /  10  50  30   0
HUTCHINSON      47  56  35  59 /  20  60  20   0
NEWTON          47  60  36  59 /  20  50  20   0
ELDORADO        48  62  37  59 /  20  50  30   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  63  37  60 /  10  50  30   0
RUSSELL         45  49  31  59 /  30  60  20   0
GREAT BEND      46  51  32  59 /  20  60  20   0
SALINA          46  55  34  58 /  30  60  20   0
MCPHERSON       47  56  35  58 /  20  60  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     52  73  38  60 /  40  40  40   0
CHANUTE         51  68  37  58 /  50  40  30   0
IOLA            50  67  37  57 /  60  50  30   0
PARSONS-KPPF    52  70  38  59 /  50  40  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-071100-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
330 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND
THE FLINT HILLS. OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS FROM OKLAHOMA. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SALINA TO GREATER WICHITA TO
WELLINGTON...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...DAMAGING
WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH...AND STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

THE SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRY
LINE FRONT...WHICH WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR A FEW STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS BEHIND THE DRY LINE...ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...WHERE ELEVATED MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT STORMS UNDER AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS TO
60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

EXTREME FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY AREAS. THERE IS TO BE NO
OUTDOOR BURNING IN THESE AREAS VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHERE OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. FOR DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACHIEVE SEVERITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A SALINA TO
WICHITA TO WELLINGTON LINE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/ES/JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
304 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     HAIL             LINCOLN                 39.04N 98.15W
04/06/2006  E0.88 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CDB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

KSZ068-069-083-062045-
BUTLER-HARVEY-SEDGWICK-
321 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUTLER...HARVEY AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES...

AT 317 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PARK CITY...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF DOWNTOWN
WICHITA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

KRC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
411 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             SALINA                  38.82N 97.62W
04/06/2006  E0.75 INCH       SALINE             KS   PUBLIC

            ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SALINA.

&&

CDB