Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
817 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

.UPDATE...
WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE WIND ADVISORY.

LATEST LOOK AT THE SURFACE OBS SHOWS THAT WIND HAD SUBSIDED BELOW
CRITERIA ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LATEST LOOK AT THE RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS THAT THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT AN HOUR FROM RUSSELL
COUNTY. NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH
STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 45-50KTS. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS LIKE MOST
OF THE STORMS ARE STAYING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT A FEW HAVE BEEN
EXHIBITING MID LEVEL ROTATION. LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LOWER AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...SO WE STILL MAY SEE A
SHOT OF A TORNADO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IF WE CAN GET A STORM
ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

COX

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

TONIGHT:
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 47 MPH THUS FAR AT RUSSELL KS. WE PLAN TO KEEP
THE WIND ADVISORY GOING...AND BOTH EXPAND IT INTO THE FLINT HILLS A
COUPLE MORE COUNTIES AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 10PM. THERE ARE A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY
ARE FAIRLY FLAT WITH THE STRONG CAP CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE GFS HAS
SOME INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS /TOO DRY AT THE SURFACE AND IN SOME
CASES THERE ARE SOME ISSUES WITH MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS/...BUT
THE NAM SEEMS TO BE MORE ON TRACK. SOME RAOB SITES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS DID AN 18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING TODAY.
LOOKING AT THE TOP AND OAX SOUNDINGS...THEY ARE BOTH QUITE CAPPED
AND HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THEM.

THE MAIN QUESTIONS FOR TONIGHT IS WHAT TIME STORM INITIATION WILL
OCCUR AND WHERE IT WILL BE. BY THE TIME THE CAP BREAKS
TONIGHT...BELIEVE IT WILL BE AFTER 00Z AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKE 02Z.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH RUSSELL KS BY THEN...THEREFORE WE
THINK MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF RUSSELL AND
THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING COME TOGETHER. WHILE THE BEST
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TO OUR NORTH /OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO...BUT
MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH NEAR THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY:
THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY STILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...THEREFORE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THESE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE AS THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEHIND
THE LINGERING CONVECTION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT QUICKLY SO
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN THEY
WERE ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
MAIN LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE EVEN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
FROM CANADA.

TUESDAY-SATURDAY:
MODELS BEGIN TO HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH THAT SAME
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A STRONG COLD
FRONT MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER THE GFS BRINGS THIS SURFACE FRONT THROUGH MUCH
QUICKER...PERHAPS AS QUICKLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THESE LARGE
DIFFERENCES...DID NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY RASH CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
ONLY REAL CHANGES MADE WERE TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE YET ANOTHER COOLDOWN AFTER A SLIGHT WARM UP AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON
FRIDAY...HIGHS COULD BE AS COOL AS AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...DID NOT
JUMP ON THAT THIS FAR AHEAD OF TIME.

SCHRECK

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  75  52  73 /  50  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      60  74  51  71 /  60  10   0   0
NEWTON          61  75  51  72 /  60  20   0   0
ELDORADO        62  75  51  73 /  60  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  76  54  73 /  50  30   5   0
RUSSELL         52  70  46  69 /  40   5   0   0
GREAT BEND      53  71  46  69 /  40   5   0   0
SALINA          56  72  47  69 /  60  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       59  74  50  70 /  60  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     68  76  54  74 /  50  60   5   0
CHANUTE         64  75  51  73 /  50  60   5   0
IOLA            63  75  50  73 /  60  50   5   0
PARSONS-KPPF    66  75  53  74 /  50  60   5   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
844 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-172215-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
844 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AROUND 70 MPH...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. THE RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. LATER TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER EARLY SUNDAY EVENING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

AFTER SUNDAY EVENING...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE. PLEASE LISTEN FOR
SUBSEQUENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS... ESPECIALLY THOSE ISSUED
AROUND MID-WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING...THEN OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK/COX

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