Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
515 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
STORMS ARE ATTEMPTING TO INITIATE FROM WILSON COUNTY ON SOUTHWARD
ALONG A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE AXIS EAST OF THE PRIMARY DRYLINE.
STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS DUE
TO LACK OF STRONG CONVERGENCE...AND MAY BE THE REASON WHY THESE
STORMS ARE SLOW TO GET GOING. HOWEVER...EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...WITH 2000-
2500 MEAN/MIXED LAYER CAPES AND LITTLE CIN AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THINKING TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED IF LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DOES NOT BACK TO SSE-SE...WHICH WOULD INCREASE STORM-RELATIVE
HELICITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND
OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
BY 8 PM.

ADK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE OBVIOUSLY WILL BE THE
SHORT TERM WITH THE POWERFUL STORMS ERUPTING OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING:
SEVERE CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST (FOR NOW).
STORMS GOT GOING QUITE A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...LIKELY DUE TO
STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REDUCING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS IMPRESSIVE...WHICH RESULTED IN THE GOLFBALL-
BASEBALL HAIL REPORTS. FOR THE MOST PART...STORM ROTATION WAS
SURPRISINGLY WEAK IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...DESPITE THE STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...ONCE LOW- LEVEL FLOW STARTED BACKING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF THE STORMS...STORMS APPEARED TO
BECOME MORE DISCRETE AND DEVELOPED BETTER LOW-MID LEVEL ROTATION.
THIS WAS ABOUT THE TIME ROTATING WALL CLOUD AND FUNNEL CLOUD
REPORTS STARTED COMING IN...BUT NO TORNADOES WERE REPORTED.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE LATEST RUC IS
INDICATING THE DRYLINE SLOWING AND EVEN STALLING OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THIS IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBS. WINDS ARE EVEN BACKING OVER NORTHEAST OK...INCREASING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SO SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY NOT BE
OUT OF THE WOODS JUST YET...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT DID NOT
RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FIRST ROUND. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SEVERE STORMS...SO STAY
TUNED.

TONIGHT:
SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SURGE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. IN
FACT...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(1000-850MB) DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
EVALUATE THIS FURTHER FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY. IN THE
MEANTIME...WE PLAN TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM. SKIES
SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT WITH FORECASTED TEMPERATURES
LOOKING TO BE IN THE BALL PARK.

MONDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY NICE DAY...BUT QUITE A BIT COOLER. WE COULD SEE
SOME LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...DUE TO STRONG RISING THETA
SURFACES RIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT THESE CLOUDS MAY BE
SHORTLIVED AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE (285-290K) TAKES OVER DURING THE
DAY. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE WINDY...BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
RELAX AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD DECOUPLING.

TUESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST AND ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO RETURN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP SOMEWHAT AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS. THE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION WITH THIS WAVE.
THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS/NAM WHICH MEANS
THE MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE A COMEBACK. WE HAVE INSERTED A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THEN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM
UP THIS WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

ADK/COX

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    35  54  23  60 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  52  23  59 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          35  52  24  59 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        36  53  23  59 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  56  24  60 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         29  49  22  59 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      31  51  23  60 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          32  52  22  58 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       33  51  23  59 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  57  24  59 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  55  23  58 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            39  53  23  58 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  56  24  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-
082-083-091>094-098.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-131200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
602 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH
ABOUT 8 OR 9 PM ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE TORNADO THREAT
IS STARTING TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

IN ADDITION...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH 9 PM ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES/ADK

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