Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
756 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

.UPDATE...
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS IN PROGRESS OF FURTHER ORGANIZING FROM
CENTRAL KS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
DCAPE OF 1000 TO 1300 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS MCS WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL COLD POOL GENERATION WITHIN THE MCS. INTENSITY OF MCS
MAY ALSO BE SUSTAINED THIS EVENING BY DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40 KT OR SO. EXPECTING OCCASIONAL BOWING
SEGMENTS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH
SEGMENTS BOWING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST POSING THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAVE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR THIS SCENARIO. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MAIN THREATS WILL
TRANSITION FROM SEVERE WX TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

CARUSO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT:
LITTLE DOUBT FORECAST FOCUS IS ON +TSRA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL &
SC KS. HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH TROF...ORIENTED ALMOST N/S ACROSS WRN KS...TO MOVE SLOWLY
E TOWARD CENTRAL KS EARLY SAT MORNING. THEREFORE...SFC COLD FRONT TO
LIKEWISE MOVE SLOWLY E/SE ALLOWING RICH...DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE TO CON-
TINUE STREAMING N/NE ACROSS SC & CENTRAL KS. AS OVERALL PATTERN GRAD-
UALLY TRANSITIONS E...DEEP-LAYER ASCENT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THEREBY
INCREASING +RA POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL & SC KS WITH GREATEST THREAT
FOR +RA SLATED FROM 9PM ONWARD. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...BOTH 1 & 3
HOURLY...RUNNING 2.5-3.0 SO WILL CHECK SWING ON ANY FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR TIME BEING.

SAT:
WIDESPREAD (+)TSRA SLATED ALL AREAS AS PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED MID-UPPER
TROF CONTINUES EWD DRIFT TOWARD ERN KS. SLOW EWD TRANSITIONING OF
PATTERN DICTATES INCREASING POPS TO 60-80% WITH AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS
ALIGNED WITH FLINT HILLS.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT:
CHANCES FOR TSRA GRADUALLY DIMINISHES AS BROADENING MID-UPR TROF
CONTINUES EWD DRIFT TOWARD MID-MS VALLEY. INHERITED POPS APPEARED
KOSHER.

MON-WED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST.

WED-NEXT FRI:
A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY CENTRAL KS WED NIGHT AS 500-MB
SHORTWAVE...PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG NE/KS BORDER...SWEEPS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SE TOWARD CENTRAL KS. DRY WEATHER SLATED FOR REST OF THE PERIOD
AS UPSTAIRS HIGH COVERING SRN PLAINS DOMINATES.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  81  65  88 / 100  80  50  40
HUTCHINSON      68  81  65  90 / 100  80  40  30
NEWTON          69  80  65  88 / 100  80  50  40
ELDORADO        69  81  66  86 / 100  80  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  83  66  85 / 100  80  60  40
RUSSELL         63  82  62  91 / 100  60  30  20
GREAT BEND      63  82  62  91 / 100  60  30  20
SALINA          68  80  66  92 / 100  70  40  30
MCPHERSON       69  80  65  91 / 100  80  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     69  81  67  85 /  90  60  60  50
CHANUTE         68  81  66  84 /  90  70  50  50
IOLA            68  81  66  84 /  90  70  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    69  81  66  85 /  90  70  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
748 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-180200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
748 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

LATE TONIGHT...THE MAIN THREAT WILL TRANSITION FROM SEVERE WEATHER TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATER CHANCES
FOR HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ALONG THE FLINT HILLS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES SLATED FOR OKLAHOMA BORDERING COUNTIES. THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER...ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT BE
SEVERE.

ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THESE THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD THEY
PERSIST...SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE.

AFTER A FAIRLY BRIEF INTERMISSION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE CHANCES ARE SLIGHT...
WOULD BE SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG...
AND NORTHWEST...OF A LINE FROM KINGMAN...TO WICHITA...TO
COTTONWOOD FALLS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE...SO ONE IS ENCOURAGED TO LISTEN FOR
SUBSEQUENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS...ESPECIALLY THOSE ISSUED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

EPS/JMC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
848 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

KSZ048-050-170230-
ELLSWORTH-RICE-
848 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR ELLSWORTH AND RICE COUNTIES...

AT 844 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ELLSWORTH TO
ALDEN...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS 50 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
858 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSW ATTICA            37.20N 98.25W
06/16/2006  E60.00 MPH       HARPER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            55 TO 60 MPH

&&

BDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
858 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

KSZ068-083-092-170245-
HARVEY-SEDGWICK-SUMNER-
858 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR HARVEY...SEDGWICK AND SUMNER COUNTIES...

AT 855 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF
SYLVIA TO 5 MILES EAST OF HAZELTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN HARVEY...SEDGWICK AND SUMNER COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORMS MOVE
INTO THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

JAKUB