Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
342 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...
CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AWAITING CONVECTIVE INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD EARLY EVENING. RUC/MESO DATA SUGGESTS CAP BEGINNING
TO ERODE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE
NEAR 2000 J/KG. STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORMS GIVEN INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. MAIN SEVERE RISK WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH TORNADO RISK IS RELATIVELY SMALL
GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS...DEVIANT STORM SCALE MOTION AND
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES COULD PROMOTE LOWER LCL ENVIRONMENT WITH BRIEF
TORNADO POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD EVOLVE INTO
LARGER SCALE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL CAP
MAY LIMIT SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 54.

POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SEVERE EVENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING...AS SURFACE FRONT SLOWS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS
EVEN BETTER WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS ALONG SLOWED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MID TO UPPER FLOW
WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY...PORTENDING TO VERY FAVORABLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BESIDES VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH
THE FORECAST SHEAR LOOK TO GIVE PERHAPS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELL STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF NEAR SURFACE FLOW
CAN REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY BACKED JUST AHEAD OF FRONT.

AFTER A DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
LOOK TO RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAKES QUICK RETURN NORTH. 850-700MB MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR PERHAPS FOR A
FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO
THE WEEKEND...IT GENERALLY LOOKS VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION ACROSS THE WEST.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAY RESULT IN VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...THOUGH TIMING
AND DETAILS TOO UNCERTAIN TO LOCK ONTO AT THE MOMENT. SO WITH
LACK OF FOCUSING MECHANISM...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY BEYOND FRIDAY.

DARMOFAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  91  62  90 /  20  10   0   5
HUTCHINSON      65  90  60  90 /  30  10   0   0
NEWTON          65  90  61  89 /  30  10   0   0
ELDORADO        66  90  63  89 /  30  20  10   5
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  92  64  91 /  20  20  10   5
RUSSELL         61  89  58  88 /  40   5   0   0
GREAT BEND      62  90  59  89 /  40   5   0   0
SALINA          64  90  60  89 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       65  90  60  89 /  40  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     68  90  65  89 /  20  30  20  10
CHANUTE         66  89  63  88 /  30  30  20   5
IOLA            66  89  63  88 /  40  30  20   5
PARSONS-KPPF    67  90  65  89 /  20  30  20   5

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
426 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-242230-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
426 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...AHEAD OF A DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT. THE MAIN
SEVERE RISK WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

A LARGER SCALE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FLINT
HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOWER STORM
MOVEMENT WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MAINLY NORTH OF A NEWTON
TO EL DORADO TO CHANUTE LINE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED

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