Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
711 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

.UPDATE...
LATEST REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOWS MCS ALREADY IN PROCESS OF
ORGANIZING EARLY THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. ABOUT A HANDFUL OF SEVERE T-STORM WARNINGS IN PROGRESS AS
OF THIS WRITING. MUCAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG IN COMBINATION WITH
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 40 TO 45 KT THIS EVENING WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
MCS...HOWEVER ANY TORNADIC THREAT LOOKS LOWER END OR MARGINAL.
PRIMARY THREAT EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS MCS
TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS EVE. LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A 35-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
NOSE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION LIKELY FOR THIS MCS. THEREFORE WE
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING...AND
CATEGORICAL FOR SOUTHEAST KS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AFTER 06Z AS MCS TRACKS
ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE
STORM STILL POSSIBLE.

CARUSO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM MT SOUTHWARD TO
NORTHERN CO AS OF MID PM...WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT. 85 KT UPPER JET STREAK AT THE BASE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROF WILL EJECT OUT INTO NE/KS TONIGHT...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE PATTERN AND LIKELY AIDING IN FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. AT LEAST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND EAST OF DRYLINE LATE THIS PM/EVE IN OUR AREA. LOOKS
LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z IN CENTRAL KS
NEAR COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-50 KT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPEAR POSSIBLE AT LEAST EARLY
ON...BEFORE CONVECTION ORGANIZES INTO A MCS OVERNIGHT WITH THE MCS
LIKELY TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KS AFTER 04Z. IF SURFACE WINDS CAN
BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TRANSITION TO
MCS OCCURS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR PRIMARY
THREAT. 35-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL AID IN STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO MCS AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS
MCS MAY BE PROGRESSIVE. GIVEN OUR FORECAST AREA IS NOT HIGHLIGHTED
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 2 INCH
RAINS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
12Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF SOUTHEAST KS COUNTIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FLOW BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY IN OUR AREA. THIS WOULD INDICATE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN
OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS
COUNTIES WITH DECENT INSTABILITY STILL LINGERING THERE. ANOTHER
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN BROAD UPPER TROF OVER NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS...IS PROGGED BY THE NAM AND GFS TO TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. 850 FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FAR SOUTHEAST KS TO
WARRANT A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL...HOWEVER HIGHER CHANCES APPEAR JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
AT THIS TIME. MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITHIN LARGER UPPER TROF
OVER NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. WILL KEEP A 20-30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER IN FORECAST AS BOTH GFS AND ESPECIALLY NAM
HINT AT ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
HIGHER-BASED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR BECOMES A BIT MORE ENTRENCHED.

THURSDAY-MONDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. SOME DISPARITY AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR THIS
WEEKENDS PATTERN. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOWS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK INTO KANSAS WITH
WEAK-MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT TRYING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY-SUNDAY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BY DAY 7...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

CARUSO

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  76  56  70 /  60  30  50  20
HUTCHINSON      59  75  55  68 /  70  20  30  20
NEWTON          59  75  56  69 /  70  30  40  20
ELDORADO        61  76  56  71 /  60  30  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  77  56  72 /  60  40  60  30
RUSSELL         55  74  50  67 /  70  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      56  74  51  67 /  70  20  30  20
SALINA          58  74  53  67 /  70  20  30  20
MCPHERSON       59  74  54  68 /  70  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     63  78  57  73 /  60  50  80  30
CHANUTE         63  77  56  73 /  70  40  50  30
IOLA            62  76  56  72 /  70  40  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    63  77  57  73 /  70  50  60  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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