Tornado Warning 54, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
338 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...
VERY POTENT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AFFECTING THE E CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS. UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER ERN S DAKOTA WITH
BROAD TROFING OVER THE WRN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY. NEAR THE SFC...A 992
MB SFC LOW WAS CENTERED IN SWRN MN WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
S TO THE MID MS VALLEY. FROM THIS TRIPLE POINT...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW ACROSS MO AND INTO NRN TX...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS MO BOOTHILL AND WRN TN AND INTO N CENTRAL AL. SW OF THIS WARM
FRONT...IN THE WARM SECTOR...CAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE 3000
J/KG ACROSS WRN AL AND ERN MS. ALSO...VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG
ACROSS THE REGION WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES OVER 200 M2/S2 INVOF WARM
FRONT.

THIS HAS CREATED VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLULAR
ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN AL AND FAR ERN MS.  THUS ROTATING TSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA ALONG THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT. THERE HAVE
SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNELS AND WALL CLOUDS WITH THESE STORMS. THUS
FAR STORMS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE ABOUT 20 MILES N
OF THE SFC WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS STILL MOVING NWD AND
THUS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET FOR THE WRN 2/3
OF N AL.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX SOME TONIGHT SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE N OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN A LITTLE AND
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW LAKE
WIND CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE TN VALLEY BECOME MORE
INTO THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT...THE LOSS OF INSOLATION WILL CAUSE
STORMS TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS OVER THE
REGION...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...THE TN VALLEY WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEWPTS IN THE LOW 70S. THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE BY MID MORNING
ALLOWING A FEW TSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL
TOMORROW...BUT STILL STRONG. SO STORM TYPE WILL MOSTLY BE AIRMASS
AND MULTICELLULAR. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROTATING STORMS
DEVELOPING TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NWRN AL...WHERE SHEAR WILL BE
STRONGEST. FORTUNATELY THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL VEERING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. BUT THIS DOES
NOT MEAN ROTATING STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

A STRONG POS TILT UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS TOMORROW
NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TWD THE MS RIVER. VERY STRONG
SPEED SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A LINE OF TSTORMS DEVELOPING W OF THE MS
RIVER...ALONG THE FRONT...SATURDAY EVENING. THIS LINE WILL SURGE
ACROSS THE MS RIVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
CLOSE TO THE FRONT DUE TO THE TILT OF THE SUPPORTING TROF. SOME OF
THE TSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE WILL LIKELY BE RATHER STRONG CONTAINING
DAMAGING WINDS. THIS SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW AL ARND
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AND THEN QUICKLY SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...REACHING HSV AREA ARND MID MORNING AND ERN CWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STILL SOME LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT STRENGTH OF
THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY. BUT THINK THERE MAY BE
A FEW INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE E OF THE TN VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING BUT THE
UPPER L/W TROF WILL REMAIN W OF THE AREA. SO SKIES WILL NOT BE VERY
QUICK TO CLEAR BUT STRONG CAA WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP INTO
THE 50S FOR THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE A VERY NICE
DAY AS THE TROF MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND COOLER DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE TN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FORTUNATELY NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE. THE
L/W TROF WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA BY TUE. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THUS COOL AND DRY WX CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AND WED
AS NRLY WINDS PERSIST.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROF WILL DIVE INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME SRLY ACROSS THE SERN CONUS IN ADVANCE OF
THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE TN VALLEY...AS
INDICATED BY 12Z GFS...MAY BE TOO QUICK FOR MUCH SIG MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A VERY STRONG
DYNAMICAL SYSTEM AND THUS SHOULD CAUSE TSTORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    73  86  73  79 /  40  40  60  70
SHOALS        74  87  71  76 /  40  40  60  70
CULLMAN       70  86  72  79 /  40  40  40  70
FAYETTEVILLE  72  86  71  77 /  30  40  60  70
ALBERTVILLE   71  86  72  78 /  40  40  40  70
FORT PAYNE    70  87  70  79 /  30  40  40  70

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLBERT...CULLMAN...DE KALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
     LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...
     AND MORGAN.

TN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...AND MOORE.

&&

PG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
139 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-231000-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
139 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES HAS BROUGHT
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND INSTABILITY TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SURGES NORTHWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AND DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

DUE TO INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 5O MPH AND
SMALL HAIL. OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA...WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
CONVERGING THE MOST...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST MOVES CLOSER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH SUNSET. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. A BAND OF CONVECTION
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND REACH THE SHOALS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY...AND THEN THE HUNTSVILLE AREA AROUND NOONTIME ON SUNDAY.
IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW STRONG THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LINE
WILL BE...GIVEN THE TIME OF PASSAGE WITHOUT DAY TIME HEATING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCHAUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
537 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ALZ008-222315-
MARSHALL-
537 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY UNTIL 615
PM CDT...

AT 536 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF WALNUT GROVE...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BOAZ...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  DOUGLAS.
  HORTON.
  HIGH POINT.
  BOAZ.
  ALBERTVILLE.
  MCVILLE.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

10

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