Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
BIG PICTURE WISE...THE INFRARED/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED
A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW PINWHEELING OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA...
WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES POISED TO MOVE UNDER IT
TOWARD THE TENN AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE PRESENT...
ACTIVE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS CONTINUE FROM WEST TEXAS (ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE) WITH OTHER CONVECTION HOLDING ITS OWN ACROSS NE
TEXAS...AND OUR EARLIER CONVECTION EXITING THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
3 PM TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AREA CAPES OF
2000-3000 J/KG WERE NOTED...WITH HIGHER VALUES TOWARD MORE SUNNY
CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND 0-3KM HELICITIES REMAINING BELOW 100 M/S.

A FEW HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER STORM WISE HAVE CAME TO AN END...AS
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITIES AND STORM POTENTIAL CRANK UP AGAIN. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EARLIER...ALONG WITH MORE THAN A FEW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS AND INSTABILITY HELPED GET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING EARLY. SEVERE T-STORM WATCH #221 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE HUNTSVILLE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 7 PM. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
PRECEDING A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT WILL HELP GET MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS GOING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND
BETTER CONVERGENCE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...
SOME SEVERE FOR THE TENN VALLEY. AS IN TODAY...MAIN THREATS ARE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. HAVE KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR TONIGHT IN THIS
REGARD. FOR FRIDAY...A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE APPROACH OF
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. INCREASING SHEAR
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SAT...AND REACH NE ALABAMA BEFORE NOON SAT. ITS PASSAGE WILL
TAPER THE CHANCES OF RAIN. WITH A FEW DAYS THIS WEEK AROUND 90...HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S SAT WILL FEEL A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A RETURN SURGE
OF MOISTURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THROUGH THAT
TIME...TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE
THIS PERIOD. NORTHERN HEMISPHERE BLOCKING AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY CONTINUE...SO NO BIG CHANGES EXCEPT TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    63  78  55  76 /  60  80  70  10
SHOALS        63  77  54  77 /  60  80  60  10
CULLMAN       63  80  56  77 /  60  80  70  10
FAYETTEVILLE  62  77  54  76 /  60  80  70  10
FORT PAYNE    62  79  56  76 /  60  80  80  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

RSB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-210230-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
1240 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
AND INTERACTS WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREATS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH. THAT COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN MORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE AREA...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN
THREATS. THE ACTIVITY COULD EXTEND WELL INTO THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE NECESSARY AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.

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