Winter Storm Warning 7, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
300 PM PST FRI MAR 3 2006

.SHORT TERM...LOCAL DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE KERN COUNTY
AREA...THE BEST ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY CENTERED CLOSER TO MERCED
COUNTY. MODEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ALONG WITH SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE PLACES THE BEST CHANCES OF SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM KINGS/TULARE COUNTIES UP TO MERCED COUNTY AND THE YOSEMITE
AREA. SATELLITE AND SURFACE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE UPPER
TROF PUSHING ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THEREFORE...THE COLD AIR HAS NOW COMPLETELY OVERSPREAD THE DISTRICT
WITH WEAKER DYNAMICS OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW ALMOST NO UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION BY 400 PM...SO WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST AS IS AND
CONTINUE LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE THEIR TERMINATION NEAR MIDNIGHT.
WILL ALSO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 600 PM.
AFTERWARD...STRONGER DOWNWARD MOTION AS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL NO LONGER SUPPORT GOOD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TIMING FOR THE
TERMINATION OF ALL PRECIP STILL EXPECTED NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH FURTHER
CLEARING ON SATURDAY. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING
A WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY...
MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER. CURRENT TIMING WILL HAVE
OVERRUNNING PRECIP DURING THE DAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS NEXT STORM WILL BE EXPECT TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A GENERALLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH ONE
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE CURRENT STORM
SYSTEM. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE EARLY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER LARGER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...RETURNING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE DISTRICT FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE
RELATIVELY COOL SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY LOW SNOW LEVELS AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH 02Z SATURDAY. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN DESERTS TIL 02Z
SATURDAY...THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THEREAFTER. MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
MVFR IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR MORE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/

MOLINA/JEB