Wind Advisory 5, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
950 AM PST SUN JAN 1 2006

.UPDATE...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...THE BAROCLINIC LEAF
CONTINUES TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.
THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET ALL HAVE 140+ KT 250-MB JET MAXES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEAF...AND THE NGM NOSES A 120+ KT JET MAX ONTO THE COAST.
VANDENBERG AFB RADAR SHOWS THE FIRST RAIN BAND MOVING ONSHORE FROM
MONTEREY BAY TO NORTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. IF THIS RAIN BAND
HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THE COASTAL RANGE...RAIN COULD REACH
LOS BANOS BY 19Z.

12Z MODEL QPF/S PUSH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA...AND FORECASTED 700-MB
TEMPERATURES OF -5 TO -6 C BY 00Z TUESDAY SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 5500-6000 FEET BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE HIGHEST QPF
FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH...THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS COULD SEE MORE
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAN YOSEMITE. THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA LOOKS ON TRACK.

ANOTHER CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE WINDS. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE PEAKS
GRADIENTS OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TONIGHT...WITH WINDS
FORECAST TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...QUITE A FEW ISSUES TO START OUT A NEW YEAR AS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME EXTREME WEATHER. EARLY THIS MORNING...
THINGS ARE RATHER TRANQUIL WITH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOWING
JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS ONE NICELY FORMED LOW HEADING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WHILE ALONG 35N A BAND OF MOISTURE STRETCHES BACK TO
THE WEST AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
TIME, THERE IS NO WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM AIMED AT THE AREA...HOWEVER
A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF IS NOTED JUST WEST OF 130W. ALL
FORECAST MODELS RAPIDLY DEVELOP A PRECIPITATION BAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG 35N AND MOVE THIS INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. I HAVE
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TO THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT MAY
NOT GET GOING IN EARNEST UNTIL TONIGHT. SPEAKING OF TONIGHT...THINGS
GET VERY INTERESTING AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERATE VERY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS THEY DRIVE A
VORTICITY CENTER TOWARDS THE COAST. A VERY STRONG JET ACCOMPANIES THE
INCOMING TROUGH AND EVEN THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE
STRONG. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 700 MB /9000 FT/ WINDS AT OR NEAR
60 KNOTS. THERE IS ONE AREA WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AND
THIS IS AT THE SURFACE. THE NAM MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND HAS VERY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE
GFS MODEL HAS A MUCH WEAKER LOW AND LIGHTER PROJECTED WINDS. GIVEN
THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE SUCH STRONG FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS...I WILL OPT
TO ISSUE AND HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR MONDAY. IF THESE WINDS DO
DEVELOP...THE BAKERSFIELD AREA MAY NOT GET MUCH RAIN...RATHER A VERY
WINDY DAY INSTEAD. IN THE SIERRA AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THE
PROJECTED QPF IS VERY IMPRESSIVE. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE
AT OR NEAR 7000 FEET...THUS PASSES WILL GET HEAVY RAIN. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA COULD EASILY GET OVER 4 FEET OF SNOW AND
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE 5 FEET OF SNOW BY LATE MONDAY. ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...BRINGING
AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. WITH THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
FOOTHILLS ALREADY HAVING SATURATED GROUND...THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS
COULD CAUSE FLOODING AND THE FLOOD WATCH SEEMS FINE.

.LONG TERM...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND BUILD A LARGE DRY UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
DRY WEATHER OVER ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND KERN DESERTS. TEMPERATURES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY MAY BE COOLER DUE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEY.
THIS SCENARIO COULD MINIMIZE THE AMOUNT OF DAY TIME CLEARING BUT
KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THE MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY AND FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND.  THE INVERSION
SHOULD WEAKEN INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLIER FOG BURN OFF AND
AFTERNOON CLEARING IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION... FOG WILL PROVIDE AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
VISIBILITIES OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA
FOOTHILLS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
A PACIFIC STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AREAS OF RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z WITH LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION...SEE TAFS FOR
KFAT...KBFL...KMCE FOR DETAILS.

&&

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND
     SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...ADJACENT SIERRA SLOPES BELOW
     7000 FEET...AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TONIGHT
     AND MONDAY.
     ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF
     KERN COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
     ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT
     THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/

SANGER/DUDLEY/MV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
500 AM PST SUN JAN 1 2006

CAZ095-098-099-021300-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
500 AM PST SUN JAN 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENT SFOFLWHNX /WGUS46 KHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WEATHER
MESSAGE SFONPWHNX /WWUS76 KHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS. OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ089>094-098-099-021300-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
500 AM PST SUN JAN 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT SFOFFAHNX /WGUS66
KHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ096-097-021300-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
500 AM PST SUN JAN 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM
YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON...AND THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
SFOWSWHNX /WWUS46 KHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT SFOFFAHNX /WGUS66
KHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

TLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1105 AM PST SUN JAN 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HEAVY SNOW       BISHOP PASS SNOTEL      37.10N 118.56W
12/31/2005  36.0 INCH        FRESNO             CA   MESONET

            ESTIMATED BY SNOTEL

0500 PM     HEAVY SNOW       CHARLOTTE LAKE SNOTEL   36.80N 118.42W
12/31/2005  32.0 INCH        FRESNO             CA   MESONET

            ESTIMATED BY SNOTEL

0500 PM     HEAVY SNOW       BLACKCAP BASIN SNOTEL   37.07N 118.77W
12/31/2005  43.0 INCH        FRESNO             CA   MESONET

            ESTIMATED BY SNOTEL

0500 PM     HEAVY SNOW       VOLCANIC KNOB SNOTEL    37.39N 118.90W
12/31/2005  39.0 INCH        FRESNO             CA   MESONET

            ESTIMATED BY SNOTEL

0500 PM     HEAVY SNOW       UPPER BURNT CORRAL SNOT 37.18N 118.94W
12/31/2005  36.0 INCH        FRESNO             CA   MESONET

            ESTIMATED BY SNOTEL

0500 PM     HEAVY SNOW       AGNEW PASS SNOTEL       37.73N 119.14W
12/31/2005  46.0 INCH        MADERA             CA   MESONET

            ESTIMATED BY SNOTEL

0500 PM     HEAVY SNOW       CRABTREE MEADOW SNOTEL  36.56N 118.35W
12/31/2005  18.0 INCH        TULARE             CA   MESONET

            ESTIMATED BY SNOTEL

0500 PM     HEAVY SNOW       CHAGOOPA PLATEAU SNOTEL 36.50N 118.44W
12/31/2005  30.0 INCH        TULARE             CA   MESONET

            ESTIMATED BY SNOTEL

&&

DS