Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
240 PM PST FRI MAR 10 2006

.SHORT TERM...DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH IS NOW BECOMING WELL ENTRENCHED
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE AS COLD AIR
CUMULUS SPREADS BEYOND THE DISTRICT. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
FILTER COLD AIR INTO THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATING 700MB TEMP/S
FROM MINUS 13 TO 15 DEG-C OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH 500MB TEMP/S DOWN
TO MINUS 30 DEG-C. THESE TEMP/S TRANSLATE IN SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
1000 TO 1500 FEET OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS STILL RESIDES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...MODEL CAPE AND LI
VALUES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
KINGS/TULARE AND KERN COUNTY LINE AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE ENTERS THE REGION FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS HAVE REPORTED CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF SNOW SO FAR
TODAY WITH AS MUCH AS ONE MORE FOOT OF SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY MORE
PRECIP WILL BE EXPECTED AS SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER IMPULSE STARTING TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE GRADUALLY
EAST NEAR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TAPERING OFF...THOUGH STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DISTRICT SUNDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS CONTINUING BELOW 1500 FEET.
BECAUSE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD SYSTEM...STILL LOOKING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN IN THE VALLEY
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING.
MODELS STILL SHOWING POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE RIDGING PUSHING THROUGH ON
MONDAY. THEREFORE...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEFORE RAIN AND SNOW RETURNS TO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DURING THE SHORT TERM. DRY WEATHER
WILL SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTH FROM THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TO OFF THE NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS STORM AND UPPER
ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM SWINGS INLAND LATE MONDAY OVER NORTH
CALIFORNIA PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE INTO YOSEMITE AND THE
CENTRAL VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH QUICKLY PUSHES SE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...LESS CERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WITH MODELS IN POOR
AGREEMENT. IN GENERAL UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC...THOUGH MAIN ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE STAYS NORTH OF 40N
LATITUDE. WILL KEEP SKIES AT PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.
MODELS PROG STEADY WARMING AT 850MB WHICH SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS IN SCT SHRA IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH
LCL IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA UNTIL 03Z. CEILINGS WILL RESULT IN
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO TAFS FOR
KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
     THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF KERN COUNTY THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING.
                                ...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
     KERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH NOON PST SATURDAY.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/

MOLINA/MV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
500 AM PST FRI MAR 10 2006

CAZ093-094-098-099-111300-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
500 AM PST FRI MAR 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS...
AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ095-111300-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
500 AM PST FRI MAR 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM FRIDAY TO 12 PM PST
SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE /WWUS46
KHNX...SFOWSWHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE SNOW ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 12 PM PST SATURDAY.

AFTER 12 PM SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ096-097-111300-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
500 AM PST FRI MAR 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 12 PM PST
SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE /WWUS46
KHNX...SFOWSWHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 12 PM SATURDAY.

AFTER 12 PM SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ089>092-111300-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
500 AM PST FRI MAR 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

AFTER SATURDAY EVENING...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

MORSE