Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
915 AM PDT FRI APR 14 2006

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW NEARING PT CONCEPTION WILL CONT MOVG NE TODAY.
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL CA HAS BEEN SPOTTY THUS FAR BUT WAS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS QUITE LIMITED TODAY. WHILE LI/S
ARE LOW /-1 TO -2/...H5 TEMPS NOT TOO CONDUCIVE...ONLY -18C.
ADDITIONALLY...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT AFTN HEATING. AS
SAT PIX ALSO BEAR OUT IS THE SIGNIFICANT LACK OF COLD AIR CU
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER SINCE THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES...WILL CONT TO MENTION ISOLD TSTMS. FCSTS LOOK FINE AND
NO UPDATE THIS MORNING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...WV IMAGERY
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
CA LATER TODAY, IS STILL SPINNING NEAR 31N/125W...OR ROUGHLY 500
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FRESNO. THE LOW WILL OPEN UP TODAY AND GAIN
MOMENTUM TOWARDS THE NE. THIS NE TRACK WILL PLACE THE OPEN WAVE AXIS
OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR RAIN SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE STILL SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH THE NAM, WHICH AS A RESULT IS ALSO PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
CAPES AND LIS. TEND TO SIDE WITH THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION, HOWEVER,
THAT IS NOT TO SAY WE WONT GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL. LOOK FOR
ANYWHERE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 IN THE SJV AND DESERTS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER ANY HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY SEE 0.25 TO 0.75 OF PRECIP, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF
BETWEEN 7K-8K FT, BUT WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 6.5K FT.
THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTS TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS OVERNIGHT WITH
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL CA IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON SATURDAY, A ROBUST LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NW.
A 140KT JET CARRYING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE
PAC/NW TO NORCAL. FOR THE MOST PART, THIS MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE CWA SATURDAY, HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT
FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH OROGRAPHICS PLAYING A PART, RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WILL BE BETTER
FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEAR YOSEMITE. NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL BE SEEN
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE JET AND
MOISTURE AXIS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR KERN COUNTY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.

.LONG TERM...FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...50H TROF IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH EXITS INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUN NIGHT AND IS FOLLOWED
BY A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS BRING A SHORT WAVE RIDGE INTO CA TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS AND NOGAPS SOLNS STILL INSIST ON MOVING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THRU THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR TUE
AFTN AND NIGHT WHILE THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW NO HINT OF IT. BELIEVE
WHATEVER FEATURE TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION WILL
EITHER FALL APART OR BE EQUIPPED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK...
IF ANY...UPWARD MOTION. CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIODS DRY IN FAVOR OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WED AND BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER OUR CWA AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVE INTO NORTHERN CA AND THE PAC NW.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THROUGH
12Z SAT. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT
AND KBFL.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
     RIVER BELOW FRIANT DAM.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/

MYERS/DURFEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
500 AM PDT FRI APR 14 2006

CAZ093>099-151200-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
500 AM PDT FRI APR 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
ELEVATION OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...AND THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

CAZ089>092-151200-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
500 AM PDT FRI APR 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

MORSE