Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
230 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY AS SATELLITE AND DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWING CELLS FIRING UP NEAR FRAZIER PARK AND AROUND THE
YOSEMITE AREA. WILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS CELLS BEGIN FORMING OVER THE FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON. AT 1PM...MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS IS PLACING THE MOISTURE
FLUX DIVERGENCE BULLS-EYES OVER THE STORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING. THIS AREA COVERS WESTERN KERN AND THE MADERA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS JUST SOUTH OF YOSEMITE. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF VALLEY
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY...ALLOWING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY DRIFT INTO
THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...BOTH LI/S AND CAPE DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FAVOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE
AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY STARTED. BOTH GFS AND NAM
PLACE CAPE BULLS-EYES OF OVER +1500J/KG ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
ALONG WITH LI/S OF MINUS 2-3 DEG-C. FURTHERMORE...WILL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SURGE INTO THE DISTRICT...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT AS THUNDERSTORMS SHOWING ALMOST STATIONARY MOVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES WERE ANOTHER PROBLEM...WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE 100 DEG-F RANGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE DURING THE SHORT TERM AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS WELL IN PLACE. THEREFORE...WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN COOLING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...500MB HEIGHT DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL ONLY LOWER TO 5900 METERS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
IN SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAINING IN AND ABOVE THE 100 DEG-F MARK.
THEREFORE...WILL SEE HOT CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM AS MORE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE... WILL ALLOW
THE HEAT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A WEAK SOUTHEAST MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE DISTRICT WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY DURING
THE END OF WEEK OVER THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST THU...THEN DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND DIVERGES FROM THE ECMWF MAINTAINING MORE
OF A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CA. PREFER TO TREND WITH THE NCEP ENSEMBLE
MEAN FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND INDICATES A
LITTLE MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM
DEVELOPING TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THEREFORE...WILL UNDERCUT EXTENDED
MOS TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES NEXT WEEKEND. OTHERWISE CONTINUED
HOT DAYS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTS BY THE WEEKEND. THE PRESENCE OF
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO CAUSE A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH
WILL SHIFT MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT THROUGH 07Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. DUE TO UNUSUALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DENSITY ALTITUDES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AIRPORTS. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE
REFER TO TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT...AND KBFL.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY
     FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT
     SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS.
  ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR HIGHER
     ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND THE TEHACHAPI
     MOUNTAINS.

&&

MOLINA/LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
653 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

CAZ089>094-241200-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
653 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE ADJACENT SIERRA FOOTHILLS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY. SEE SFONPWHNX
/WWUS76 HNX/ FOR DETAILS. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 115
IN MANY AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

CAZ095>097-241200-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
653 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 900 PM TODAY. SEE
SFOFFAHNX /WGUS66 KHNX/ FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

BINGHAM