Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
215 PM PDT FRI APR 21 2006

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...SKIES HAVE
CLEARED UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS HAS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THUS FAR, CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED
TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF KERN, KINGS AND FRESNO COUNTIES. NO
THUNDER HAS BROKEN OUT IN THE HANFORD FORECAST HOWEVER THUNDER HAS
FORMED TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED THROUGH THE 70S AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IT WILL BY INTERESTING TO SEE JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD THE CONVECTION GETS OR IF IT FIRES OFF OVER THE SJV. THE
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW STILL MOVING
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST AND MODELS BRING IT ASHORE LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ON SATURDAY, THE LOW IS PROGGED TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE. MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND NOW HANG ON TO SOME WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SIERRA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO LIMIT
POPS TO THE FOOTHILLS AND SIERRA. ON MONDAY, THE LATEST GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME RIDGING OVER THE AREA, HOWEVER WITH EACH
MODEL RUN, THE RIDGE IS LESS AMPLIFIED. MAY NOT SEE SUCH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

.LONG TERM...FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS FORECAST A FLAT WAVE RIDGE TO RESIDE OVER CENTRAL CA MON
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED ALONG THE PAC NW
COAST. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
TROF AS IT MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUE AND WED. THE
NOGAPS SOLN DIGS THIS TROUGH SO DEEPLY THAT IT CLOSES OFF A 50H LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERNEV BY 12Z WED. THE GFS IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE CLOSED LOW THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND KEEPS IT NORTH OF CA
TUE NIGHT SIMILAR TO THE ECM AND UKMET. THE CANADIAN GLOBAL LEANS
TOWARD THE NCEP MEAN ENSEMBLE WHICH BASICALLY FORECASTS AN OPEN WAVE
TROF TO MOVE ACROSS CA LATE TUESDAY WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS RESIDING OVER THE PAC NW. AS LONG AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOW DISCREPANCIES WITH STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS TROF...WILL
LEAVE TOKEN POPS IN ACROSS OUR CWA NORTH OF KERN CO TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...THE MODELS FORECAST A
50H RIDGE TO BUILD RATHER STRONGLY OVER CA. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU WED. HOWEVER...A PRONOUNCED WARMUP IS
EXPECTED BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUN.  FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER
TO TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
     SOUTHWESTERN MADERA AND NORTHWEST FRESNO COUNTIES ALONG THE
     CHOWCHILLA BYPASS.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/

DUDLEY/DURFEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
545 AM PDT FRI APR 21 2006

CAZ089>092-221200-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
545 AM PDT FRI APR 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

CAZ093>099-221200-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
545 AM PDT FRI APR 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA AND
FOOTHILLS...THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

PJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
537 PM PDT FRI APR 21 2006

CAZ089-220130-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
537 PM PDT FRI APR 21 2006

...FUNNEL CLOUDS OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...

SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER WESTERN
FRESNO COUNTY HAS PRODUCED FUNNEL CLOUDS. THESE FUNNELS HAVE
REMAINED ALOFT...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT.

PEOPLE LIVING IN...OR TRAVELING THROUGH...WESTERN FRESNO COUNTY
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL FUNNEL CLOUDS. IF A FUNNEL CLOUD
APPROACHES THE GROUND...SEEK SHELTER AT ONCE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE
FOR UPDATED WEATHER INFORMATION. OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD  /USE ALL LOWER CASE/.

SANGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
606 PM PDT FRI APR 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             14 W FIVE POINTS        36.43N 120.35W
04/21/2006  E0.75 INCH       FRESNO             CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0522 PM     HAIL             10 SW MENDOTA           36.66N 120.51W
04/21/2006  E1.00 INCH       FRESNO             CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SANGER