Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1047 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE BAND OF STORMS MOVING DOWN INTO EXTREME SETX AT 15Z
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SO FAR ONLY HAIL TO GOLFBALLS HAVE
RECEIVED AND THAT WAS IN TYLER COUNTY NEAR FRED.

BIG STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR
BWD TO CRS TO PSN. ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND JUST
SOUTH OF IT LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LI -6 TO
-8...CAPE 1300- 2000...PW POOLING NEAR 1.6 BUT WITH MARGINAL
HELICITY AS LL FLOW WEAKENS. THREAT LOOKS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. WILL UP THE POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SEVERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THIS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AS LIFT ARRIVES NEAR
THE COAST COINCIDENT WITH FROPA. WILL BE UPDATING THE HWO SHORTLY
TO FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 349 REPLACED PREVIOUS AND
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NEARLY ALL OF SETX TIL 5 PM.

45/42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  60  78  52  81 /  80  30  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  60  78  53  81 /  80  40  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  67  78  64  80 /  40  50  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...AND WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     AND WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1112 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

GMZ330-335-350-355-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
235>238-151615-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
1112 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AT 11 AM A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A WACO TO CORSICANA TO
PALESTINE LINE AND WAS SAGGING SOUTH. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT IS VERY
UNSTABLE DUE TO COLD AIR PRESENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND
WARM HUMID GULF AIR FEEDING INTO THE REGION NEAR THE SURFACE. AS
THE REGION WARMS THIS AFTERNOON THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FOR
AREAS WEST OF A CROCKETT TO LAKE LIVINGSTON TO GALVESTON BAY LINE
AND SHOULD THE AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY...WITH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD
TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST.

EXPECTED SOME OF THESE STORMS TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY AND BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. A LESSER THREAT WILL BE
OF SHORT LIVED DAMAGING WINDS.

INTENSE RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THE MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IF STORMS BEGIN TO MERGE THEN GREATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING.