Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING MCS WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT SURE
EXACTLY HOW TO WORD POPS SINCE ALL THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
BETWEEN 14-15Z. SOUTHERN EXTENT IS THE WEAKEST AND THE COAST WILL
BE LUCKY TO EVEN GET A FEW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH RAIN FELL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES AND WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE CWA FROM
THE WEST...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. SOME CONCERN
THAT TEMPS MIGHT BE WARMER AND RH VALUES LOWER WITH WEST WINDS
TODAY. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT THE LACK OF
MOISTURE PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF RAIN. WITH WEST WINDS AND WARM
START TO THE DAY...GLS WILL LIKELY SET ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD
(78 IN 1907).

UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IS OFFSHORE. TREND
IS COOLER AND CONTINUED DRY. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AND SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING HOW DRY
THIS AIR MASS IS. ANOTHER S/WV WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER...THE
S/WV LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE ADDED 20
POPS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO THE S/WV. OTHERWISE...
LONG TERM TRENDS SUGGEST DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. NOT EXACTLY GOOD
NEWS FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES. GALVESTON HAS ONLY RECEIVED 1.26
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE JAN 1. THIS IS THE DRIEST START TO THE YEAR
EVER. THE PREVIOUS DRIEST START TO THE YEAR OCCURRED IN 1976 WITH
ONLY 2.11 INCHES THAT YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
AM EXPECTING THE SEAS TO STAY IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE BEYOND 20 NM.
OVER THE NEARSHORE AREAS THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND
MORE THAN LIKELY THE SEAS. SO...WILL GO WITH AN SCA THROUGH 18Z.
DURING THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE RAIN
AREA MOVES NORTHEAST. THE MAIN BULK OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY AND HELP GENERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF SCA CRITERIA.

PL-40

&&

AVIATION...
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CLL AREA AROUND 10Z BUT AFFECT THE
HOUSTON AIRPORTS THROUGH 12Z.

PL-40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  43  65  38  65 /  10   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  48  68  40  66 /  30   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  57  66  49  66 /  20   0   0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COLORADO...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...AND
     WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...AND WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM
     MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...AND WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...AND WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
637 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-211245-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
637 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO BEFORE 10 AM OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
403 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

TXZ195>198-210>212-201030-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
403 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

        ...TORNADO WATCH ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM...

THE TORNADO WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...WALLER AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. NO REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED.