Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 AM CDT SAT MAY 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 8 AM. LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ENTERING OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH THIS COMPLEX...BUT THE RECENT TREND HAS BEEN FOR THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN AS THEY ENTER OUR CWA. SOME SPOTS COULD EASILY SEE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING.
DUE TO THE AREAS RECENT DRYNESS...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES
AT THIS TIME. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING UP NORTH
AND LOWERED THEM A BIT TOWARD THE COAST. THINK MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WILL STABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...IF THIS MORNINGS STORMS MOVE ON OUT EARLY AND THE SUN SHINES
ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE STORMS
AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE FOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING COULD
BRING US SOME MORE STORMS. WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THESE HARD TO TIME IMPULSES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AND MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
AN EARLY MAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND LOWERED THURSDAYS AND FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. 42
&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 17 KNOTS AT BUOY035
AND NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY019 EARLY
THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TODAY AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
EAST CENTRAL TX MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TX LATER THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW
FROM THE MCS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS PROVIDING A BRIEF
WINDSHIFT AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST TX SUNDAY AND STALL PROVIDING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP
OVER EAST CENTRAL TX SUN NIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TX BRINGING
ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH THE UPPER TX COAST. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SLIGHTLY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST
TX AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TX.
32
&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE MCS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 1800FT AT KIAH
TO NEAR 13000FT AT KHOU. SQUALL LINE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE LINE WILL
HOLD TOGETHER OR DISSIPATE BY THEN. HIGHEST SURFACE INSTABILITY
ATTM IS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX AND WITH THE LINE
MOVING INTO AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S BELIEVE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS THE LINE PROPAGATES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH 18Z. AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX SHOULD STABILIZE SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE MCS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
32
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  67  88  67  88 /  80  40  20  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  69  88  69  88 /  60  40  20  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  74  83  74  83 /  50  30  20  30  30
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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