Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
911 PM CDT THU OCT 12 2006

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 824 EXPIRED AT 02Z. WITH THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST...A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS (TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S) HAS BEGUN TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN TONIGHTS FORECAST UP NORTH AND HIGHER
VALUES TOWARD THE COAST.

ENJOY THIS BRIEF COOLDOWN WHILE YOU CAN. IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK
WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY WARM
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS STARTING SUNDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND IT
LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO BE WET. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 254 PM CDT THU OCT 12 2006)

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM JUST NORTH OF CLL TO NEAR UTS TO JUST SOUTH OF LFK. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 824 IN EFFECT (EXCEPT FOR MADISON...HOUSTON
AND TRINITY COUNTIES) UNTIL 9 PM CDT. FRONT SHOULD REACH COAST
NEAR MIDNIGHT AND MOVE TO NEAR COASTAL BEND AND OFFSHORE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND JUST SW OF CWFA
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING CONTINUING SW ZONES FRIDAY.
NE ZONES SHOULD GET A DECENT SHOT OF DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
TOMORROW. UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SW CONUS EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL
RESULT IN PRESSURE FALLS OVER WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE HEART OF THE LONE STAR STATE. WARM
FRONT PUSHING NORTH SATURDAY WITH INCREASING PW VALUES. TIME
CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE GOOD LIFT ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON MONDAY. REGION WILL BE UNDER
FIELD OF DIVERGENCE MONDAY WITH RR QUAD OF UPPER JET NEARBY. THE
ONLY BREAK (SOMEWHAT, THAT IS) FROM RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR CWFA
PROBABLY WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. GFS INDICATE A
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.
37

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...AND WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM
     FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

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