Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2006

Flash Flood Warning 67, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

November 6, 2006Montgomery County, San Jacinto County, Walker County, Texas

NWS Houston/Galveston, TX issued this flash flood warning at Nov 6, 2006, 9:10 AM CST for Montgomery County, San Jacinto County, Walker County, Texas. It was in force for 110 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Nov 6, 2006, 9:10 AM CST (15:10 UTC)
Expired: Nov 6, 2006, 11:00 AM CST
In force: 110 min
Issued by: NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Montgomery County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Walker County, TX

The radar

The Houston radar (KHGX), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Houston/Galveston, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Nov 6, 3:27 AM CST, 5 hours 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 6, 3:27 AM CST, 5 hours 43 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
327 AM CST MON NOV 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER SE TX DURING THE LAST HOUR
AS A SHRT WV APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE DIVERGENT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE THIS MORNING. THE MCS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SAG
SE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

THERE ARE MANY CHALLENGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. MOST OF THE
CONCERN IS DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS. HAVE TRENDED THE FCST TOWARD THE
6Z NAM SOLN FOR THE SHORT-TERM AS IT HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON PRECIP
TRENDS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LIKELY OVER THE NE
ZONES...SO WENT CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT THERE. WILL HAVE LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL MENTIONED AREAWIDE THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE AFT HOURS. THINK THAT WE WILL SEE
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER NE
AREAS. BASED ON THE 6Z NAM...DECIDED TO EXTEND CHC POPS INTO THE
EVE HRS FOR THE SE 1/2 OF THE AREA AS WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE DEVELOPMENT
ON THE SFC BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFT AND EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES
INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA. AM CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE ISOLATED
SVR TSTMS TODAY AND INTO THE EVE HOURS AREA-WIDE. THIS IS DUE TO
THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BECAUSE SE TX LIES IN THE LF
QUAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THIS MORNING AND THEN IN A
GENERAL DIFFLUENT AREA LATE THIS AFT AND EVE AS A MID/UPPER LOW
AMPLIFIES NE OF THE AREA AS A POTENT JET MAX DIVES DOWN FROM THE
NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THE MAIN SVR TSTM THREAT APPEARS
TO BE HAIL. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT THAT STRONG AND THAT
SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO/STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT. THIS COULD CHG
LATE THIS AFT IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES SE TX...SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
MONITOR AS MESO-SCALE FEATURES EVOLVE DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND TODAY AND TONIGHT...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO COINCIDE WITH
THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS. WARMED MAX TEMPS THIS WEEK AND
WARMED TEMPS IN GENERAL NEXT WEEKEND. THESE SOLNS ARE NOT AS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE NEXT MID/UPPER TROF FRI/SAT. IN FACT THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON SAT. WE WILL SEE...IT IS
A LONG WAY OUT TO GET TOO CONCERNED WITH ANY DETAILS. BUT DID ADD
SLIGHT CHC POPS ON SUN IN CASE A BOUNDARY IS LURKING IN THE AREA.
33
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  57  79  54  83 /  70  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  58  79  55  82 /  70  30   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  66  77  64  80 /  70  40   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...AND WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...AND WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 6, 5:10 AM CST, 4 hours before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Houston/Galveston, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 6, 4:29 AM CST	Tornado Warning	HGX	Houston	46 min
Nov 6, 5:15 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	HGX	Houston	45 min
Nov 6, 5:28 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	HGX	Walker	47 min
Nov 6, 6:40 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	HGX	Montgomery, Walker	50 min
Nov 6, 7:24 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	HGX	Brazoria, Fort Bend	51 min
Nov 6, 8:19 AM CST	Special Marine Warning	HGX		56 min
Nov 6, 10:02 AM CST	Flash Flood Watch	HGX	Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Liberty, Madison, Montgomery and 4 more	4 hr
Nov 6, 10:03 AM CST	Special Marine Warning	HGX		40 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2006 Every flash flood warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.