High Wind Warning 4, NWS Honolulu, HI

000 
WWHW70 PHFO 261409
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
409 AM HST SUN FEB 26 2006

...STRONG WINDS AT THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA CONTINUE 
TODAY...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS AT THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS TODAY. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY.

HIZ028-270200-
/O.CON.PHFO.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-060227T0200Z/
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
409 AM HST SUN FEB 26 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON...

WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF MAUNA LOA AND MAUNA KEA TODAY.

A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SUMMIT AREAS MEANS THAT SUSTAINED
WINDS OVER 45 MPH...OR FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ARE IMMINENT.
TRAVEL TO THE SUMMIT AREAS SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE.

$$

000 
WWHW70 PHFO 261954
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
954 AM HST SUN FEB 26 2006

HIZ028-262100-
/O.CAN.PHFO.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-060227T0200Z/
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
954 AM HST SUN FEB 26 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS HAD DROPPED TO NEAR 25 MPH LATE THIS
MORNING...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

$$
RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1043 AM HST SAT FEB 25 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER GENERALLY FINE
FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL TURN FROM TRADES TO SOUTHEASTERLIES BY
TUESDAY...AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CHAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND WEATHER
GRIDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN OF DRY AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST TRIES TO SQUEEZE EASTWARD...THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE DRIER AIR
WILL INITIALLY WIN OUT...KEEPING RAINFALL RATHER LIMITED THROUGH
MONDAY.

THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS WELL. RATHER BEWILDERING
IS THE STRONG GRADIENT AND BRISK WINDS PROGGED TO BE AT THE SURFACE
WHILE UP AT 850 MB THE MODELS SHOW RATHER WEAK TRADES. THIS MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE
THROUGH MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS FOLLOWED
BY NIGHTTIME CLEARING...OR WILL IT BE MORE TRADE-LIKE. HAVE PAINTED
A HYBRID-PATTERN IN THE GRIDS.

THUS FAR THE THICKER HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS HAD A TOUGH TIME GETTING
EAST OF 150W. WHILE THE MODELS STILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT IS NOT QUITE AS
PRONOUNCED AS EARLIER RUNS HAVE SHOWN. CURRENT FORECAST PAINTS A
RATHER CLOUDY PICTURE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AND WHILE THIS MAY
BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC...PREFER TO WATCH SATELLITE TRENDS AWHILE
LONGER BEFORE MAKING REVISIONS.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LATER TUE...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON A CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER
AND SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
APPROACHING 2 INCHES FOR KAUAI TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING EASTWARD.
AT LEAST FOR THE WESTERN MAIN ISLANDS...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS BY THEN.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

R BALLARD